THE ROTHERY REPORT
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Rothery Report Performance

Current Stats

Average Capital Gain

51.5%

Average Holding Period

3.9 Yrs

03/31/2001 to 09/30/2017




16 Years in Review (Q1 2017)
(The stats below cover the 03/31/2001 to 03/31/2017 period.)


This is the sixteenth anniversary edition of the Rothery Report and each year I like to take a little walk down memory lane to commemorate the occasion.

The report's best performer overall was Books-A-Million which climbed 606% before it was sold. Add in non-reinvested dividends and the portfolio picked up a total return of 626% from the book retailer. The second best gainer was our first outing with Service Corp, which generated a capital gain of 462% - and a total return of 474% including dividends - when it was sold in 2007. Third place goes to our first round with Algoma Central. The shipping company was sold in late 2006 for an average capital gain of 263% and an average total return of 279%. Indigo yielded a capital gain of 263% and a total return of 278%. It also increased my fondness for bookstores, which I hadn't thought possible. eBay netted a 244% return while Lone Star yielded a capital gain of 221%. Apple provided a 213% return and was, alas, sold far too soon. Target generated gains of 203%, despite its failed Canadian expansion. A quick run with Stewart netted a 200% capital gain. Berkshire Hathaway has advanced 184% so far. We locked in a capital gain of 168% from Seaboard. ATCO climbed 168%, and that doesn't include the stream of dividends it paid over the years. Toys 'R' Us advanced 158% before it was sold in 2005. Precision Castparts provided a return of 156% in a little over two years. John B. Sanfilippo & Sons harvested the biggest pop in the shortest time with a 149% run in less than a year. Circuit City returned 148% in the early days of the report. Cisco was recently sold to book a 146% gain. M.D.C. rose 123% before the U.S. real estate market imploded. Altria chalked up a capital gain of 107% not including its hefty dividend yield, which exceeded 8% at times. A reanimated Service clawed up 106%, not including dividends, in our second outing with the death-care stock. Trailing just behind, Algoma Central provided a gain of 104% the second time around.

Top Rothery Report Capital Gainers
CompanyCapital GainYears HeldAnnualized Gain
Books-A-Million606%375%
Service462%537%
Algoma Central263%435%
Indigo255%916%
eBay244%345%
Lone Star Tech221%343%
Apple Computer213%267%
Target203%718%
Stewart200%429%
Berkshire Hathaway184%1110%
Seaboard168%715%
ATCO168%813%
Toys 'R' Us158%276%
Precision Castparts156%257%
John B Sanfilippo149%1210%
Circuit City148%341%
Cisco146%617%
MDC123%245%
Altria107%711%
Service106%327%
Algoma Central104%423%

Greatest hits are one thing, but how do we stack up overall? The average Rothery Report stock provided capital gains of 50.9% since first being suggested. The average holding period for stocks in the portfolio has been 3.84 years. Based on those two numbers, the portfolio's annualized average capital gain comes in at 11.3%. That figure does not include dividends, which would have boosted total returns by several percentage points. For instance, the average dividend yield for stocks in the current portfolio is 1.8%, which is low compared to past figures.

The markets didn't fare as well. The S&P 500 climbed by an average of 4.5% per year over the last 16 years. The S&P/TSX Composite index outpaced it by an inch with an average annual advance of 4.6% over the same period. Again, neither figure includes dividends.

I like to keep an eye on my batting average. While I don't expect to hit a home run every time, I would be disappointed if too many of my picks fouled off. So far, a little over 68.7% of the portfolio's stocks have shown positive capital gains. I always try to do better, but you should be aware that I'm far from perfect. More than a few of my stocks have lost money and sometimes a substantial amount. It may also be difficult to improve on my past success rate but I'll endeavor to do so.
 
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Disclaimers: Consult with a qualified investment advisor before trading. Past performance is a poor indicator of future performance. The information on this site, and in its related newsletters, is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, financial advice or recommendations. The information on this site is in no way guaranteed for completeness, accuracy or in any other way. More...