"Value stocks are about as exciting as watching grass grow. But
have you ever noticed just how much your grass grows in a week?"  - Christopher Browne


Stingy Links
http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/articles/articlearchive.shtml

Delving into Dividends
http://www.ndir.com/SI/strategy/tipsheet/03-13-2009-Delving-into-Dividends.shtml
"It might surprise you, but dividends are the primary source of
long-term returns for stock investors. From 1900 to 2008 U.S.
stocks provided average annual real returns of 6.0% including
reinvested dividends. However, without the dividends, U.S. stocks
only gained 1.7% a year over the same period. That's why I decided
to take a close look at the history of U.S. dividends with the
help of Robert Shiller's data."

Reinvesting when terrified
http://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/JG_ReinvestingWhenTerrified.pdf
"Finally, be aware that the market does not turn when it sees
light at the end of the tunnel. It turns when all looks black, but
just a subtle shade less black than the day before."

Currency crashes in industrial countries
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2009/966/ifdp966.pdf
"Sharp exchange rate depreciations, or currency crashes, are
associated with poor economic outcomes in industrial countries only
when they are caused by inflationary macroeconomic policies.
Moreover, the poor outcomes are attributable to inflationary
policies in general and not the currency crashes in particular. On the
other hand, crashes caused by rising unemployment or external
deficits have always had good economic consequences with stable
or falling inflation rates."

Buffett's unmentionable bank solution
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123672700679188601.html
"Now comes Warren Buffett, a big investor in Wells Fargo, M&T
Bank and several other banks, who, during his marathon appearance
on CNBC Monday, clearly called for suspension of mark-to-market
accounting for regulatory capital purposes. We add the italics
for the benefit of a House hearing tomorrow on this very issue.
Mark-to-market accounting is fine for disclosure purposes, because
investors are not required to take actions based on it. It's
not so fine for regulatory purposes. It doesn't just inform but
can dictate actions that make no sense in the circumstances. Banks
can be forced to raise capital when capital is unavailable or
unduly expensive; regulators can be forced to treat banks as
insolvent though their assets continue to perform."

Confessions of a pundit
http://www.newsweek.com/id/186950
"Prominent experts, therefore, are often simply those whose
voices are in harmony with today's mood and who have an easier time
selling their stories. That doesn't mean that the analysis is
inherently flawed - only that it is inherently market-driven."

The looting of America's coffers
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/11/business/economy/11leonhardt.html?_r=1
"With moral hazard, bankers are making real wagers. If those
wagers pay off, the government has no role in the transaction. With
looting, the government's involvement is crucial to the whole
enterprise."

Lessons fron the great depression
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/events/2009/0309_lessons/20090309_romer.pdf
"To start, I think it's important that I point out that there's a
current recession, is unquestionably severe. It pales in
comparison to what our parents and grandparents experienced in the
1930s."

Higher risk, lower returns
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1354070
"This study makes a critical distinction between the returns of
hedge funds and the returns of investors in these funds. Investor
returns depend not only on the returns of the funds they hold
but also on the timing and magnitude of their capital flows into
and out of these funds. The capital flow effect exists for any
investment but is especially relevant for hedge funds because of
the large magnitude and variation in the associated capital
flows. We use dollar-weighted returns (a form of IRR) to assess the
properties of actual investor returns on hedge funds and compare
them to buy-and-hold fund returns. Our first finding is that
annualized dollar-weighted returns are on average about 4 percent
lower than corresponding buy-and-hold fund returns. This
performance gap rises to as much as 9 percent for "star" funds with the
highest buy-and-hold returns and for funds with high volatility
of capital flows, a remarkable difference in assessing long-run
investment performance. In addition, dollar-weighted returns
are below comparable returns for broad-based stock indexes. Our
second finding is that dollar-weighted returns are more variable
than their buy-and-hold counterparts. The combined impression
from these results is that the return experience of hedge fund
investors is much worse than previously thought."

House of cards
http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2009/03/16/090316ta_talk_surowiecki
"This is the paradox of deleveraging: it's good for borrowers to
reduce their debt, and good for lenders to be more rigorous in
their standards, but when everyone deleverages at once it does
real damage. It's like a drug addict whose dealer cuts him off:
it's good to stop using, but withdrawal is painful. The end of the
credit-card boom isn't going to wreak as much havoc as the end
of the housing boom. But it is helping to put a brake on our
spending. And, at this point, every little bit hurts."

Economy has "fallen off a cliff"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29592831
"Wishes he had written the New York Times "Buy American" piece a
few months later, but stands by the basic argument that you'll
do better over a ten-year period with stocks that you will with
Treasuries. He said in the article he wasn't calling the bottom
of the stock market, and he still isn't."




Tip Sheet
http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/tipsheet.shtml

Delving into Dividends
http://www.ndir.com/SI/strategy/tipsheet/03-13-2009-Delving-into-Dividends.shtml
Dividends are the primary source of long-term returns for
stock investors. Let's take a look.

Chitchat
http://www.ndir.com/SI/strategy/tipsheet/03-11-2009-Chitchat.shtml
A few notes from my talk to the Ryerson Investment Club




DOW 30 Value Screens
http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy.shtml 

High Dividend Yield Stocks                   P/E P/B P/S P/D Yield
============================================ === === === === =====
Alcoa  (AA)                                   0   5   5   5    5
Pfizer  (PFE)                                 2   3   2   5    5
EI DuPont  (DD)                               4   2   4   5    5
AT&T  (T)                                     2   4   2   5    5
Verizon  (VZ)                                 2   3   3   5    5
Caterpillar  (CAT)                            5   2   5   4    4
Merck  (MRK)                                  5   2   1   4    4
American Express  (AXP)                       5   4   3   4    4
Kraft  (KFT)                                  2   4   3   4    4
Boeing  (BA)                                  3   0   5   4    4
More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/dogs.shtml 

Value Ratio Stocks                           P/E P/B P/S P/D  VR
============================================ === === === === =====
Caterpillar  (CAT)                            5   2   5   4   0.7
American Express  (AXP)                       5   4   3   4   1.0
EI DuPont  (DD)                               4   2   4   5   1.0
Chevron  (CVX)                                5   4   4   3   1.3
Merck  (MRK)                                  5   2   1   4   1.3
General Electric  (GE)                        5   5   4   3   1.3
Pfizer  (PFE)                                 2   3   2   5   1.3
AT&T  (T)                                     2   4   2   5   1.6
Boeing  (BA)                                  3   0   5   4   1.8
Verizon  (VZ)                                 2   3   3   5   1.9
More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/valueratio.shtml 

Graham Stocks                            P/E P/B P/D   G$   dG$(%)
======================================== === === === ====== ======
Bank of America  (BAC)                    3   5   1   18.49 221.02
General Electric  (GE)                    5   5   3   19.68 104.58
American Express  (AXP)                   5   4   4   23.08  76.31
Walt Disney  (DIS)                        4   4   1   28.88  68.59
Chevron  (CVX)                            5   4   3  106.01  68.51
JP Morgan Chase  (JPM)                    1   5   1   33.80  42.30
Caterpillar  (CAT)                        5   2   4   35.75  33.48
Hewlett-Packard  (HPQ)                    3   3   1   34.60  17.49
AT&T  (T)                                 2   4   5   28.14  15.95
Kraft  (KFT)                              2   4   4   25.74  14.24
Pfizer  (PFE)                             2   3   5   15.43   6.13
Merck  (MRK)                              5   2   4   28.65   5.83
United Technologies  (UTX)                4   2   3   42.50   4.75
EI DuPont  (DD)                           4   2   5   19.64   0.79
More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/graham.shtml 



S&P/TSX60 Value Screens
http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy.shtml 

High Dividend Yield Stocks              P/E P/B P/S P/C P/D Yield*
======================================= === === === === === ======
Biovail (BVF)                            4   2   1   1   5    5
Bank of Montreal (BMO)                   4   4   4   2   5    5
Manulife (MFC)                           1   5   5   5   5    5
CIBC (CM)                                0   3   2   0   5    5
Sun Life (SLF)                           2   5   4   4   5    5
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)                3   3   3   5   5    5
BCE (BCE)                                1   4   3   4   5    5
Transalta (TA)                           2   3   3   3   5    5
Power Corporation of Canada (POW)        3   5   0   0   5    5
National Bank of Canada (NA)             3   4   4   0   4    4
More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/dogs.shtml 

Value Ratio Stocks                       P/E P/B P/S P/C P/D  VR
======================================== === === === === === =====
Biovail (BVF)                             4   2   1   1   5   0.6
Bank of Montreal (BMO)                    4   4   4   2   5   0.9
Encana (ECA)                              5   3   2   4   4   1.2
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)                 3   3   3   5   5   1.5
Toronto Dominion Bank (TD)                4   4   3   5   4   1.6
Telus (T)                                 4   3   3   4   4   1.6
Power Corporation of Canada (POW)         3   5   0   0   5   1.6
Petro Canada (PCA)                        5   5   5   4   3   1.7
Bombardier Cl.B (BBD.B)                   5   2   5   5   2   1.9
National Bank of Canada (NA)              3   4   4   0   4   1.9
More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/valueratio.shtml 

Graham Stocks                            P/E P/B P/D   G$   dG$(%)
======================================== === === === ====== ======
Teck Cominco Limited (TCK.B)              5   5   0   26.69 429.50
Petro Canada (PCA)                        5   5   3   69.18 134.43
Talisman Energy (TLM)                     5   4   2   27.55 115.38
Agrium (AGU)                              5   3   1   82.04  78.34
Encana (ECA)                              5   3   4   87.17  75.78
Inmet Mining (IMN)                        4   5   1   59.93  75.49
Nexen Inc. (NXY)                          5   4   2   31.51  73.49
Husky Energy (HSE)                        5   3   0   45.24  65.84
Bombardier Cl.B (BBD.B)                   5   2   2    4.56  63.88
Bank of Montreal (BMO)                    4   4   5   51.34  62.38
Canadian Tire (CTC.A)                     4   4   2   65.58  57.50
Power Corporation of Canada (POW)         3   5   5   28.92  57.36
Canadian Pacific Rail (CP)                4   5   3   58.28  57.21
Gildan Activewear Inc. (GIL)              4   4   0   14.41  51.33
Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ)          5   3   1   71.39  49.54
Toronto Dominion Bank (TD)                4   4   4   60.80  47.64
Sun Life (SLF)                            2   5   5   28.71  40.30
Telus (T)                                 4   3   4   41.89  28.22
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)                 3   3   5   35.91  18.70
National Bank of Canada (NA)              3   4   4   48.17  17.15
Biovail (BVF)                             4   2   5   16.72  16.38
Weston George (WN)                        3   2   3   68.10  14.83
Magna Cl.A (MG.A)                         1   5   3   32.55  13.94
TransCanada (TRP)                         3   3   4   34.27  12.84
Royal Bank (RY)                           3   2   4   38.61   8.93
CN Railway (CNR)                          3   2   3   44.32   4.19
Yamana Gold Inc. (YRI)                    1   4   1   10.82   3.10
More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/graham.shtml 

*Notes: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/notes.shtml 


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Books for Stingy Investors

Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits
by Philip A. Fisher

Fisher takes a qualitative view of stocks and stresses the
importance of intangible aspects of a firm with heavy emphasis on
research and human capital. He also falls into the focused camp of
investors who buy only a few carefully selected stocks and hold
them for long periods. As Warren Buffett's second favourite book
on investing, Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits is a must read
for students of the market.
Amazon Link: http://www.amazon.ca/exec/obidos/ASIN/0471445509/


Stock Research From Dan Hallett & Associates

The Rothery Report
http://www.rotheryreport.com/ 

The Rothery Report provides research on select deep-value stocks in
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  Average Capital Gain    Average Holding Period
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http://www.rotheryreport.com/store/store.shtml

Subscribe Today
http://www.rotheryreport.com/store/order.shtml 



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ISSN 1499-2795 Copyright Norman Rothery, 2009.  All rights
reserved. The securities mentioned in this report are not appropriate
for all investors. Consult your professional investment advisor before
making any investment decision.  While all reasonable effort is made
to ensure the accuracy of information and data contained herein,
accuracy can not be guaranteed. Past performance is not a good
predictor of future performance.  Results are not guaranteed and we
assume no liability whatsoever for any material losses that may occur.
No compensation for suggesting particular securities or financial
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