"People like the robber barons assumed that the doctrine of the
survival of the fittest authenticated them as deserving power. You
know, "I'm the richest. Therefore, I'm the best. God's in his
heaven, etc." And that reaction of the robber barons was so
irritating to people that it made it unfashionable to think of an
economy as an ecosystem. But the truth is that it is a lot like an
ecosystem. And you get many of the same results."  - Charlie Munger


Stingy Links
http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/articles/articlearchive.shtml

Canadian dividend yield strategy
http://www.mhinvest.com/supportArticles/CSCanadianDividendYieldStrategy.pdf
"What is the optimal combination of dividend yield and payout
ratio for investors? We extend our coverage to the Canadian market
in this report, expanding on our prior research, which examined
the influences of dividend yield and payout ratios within the
U.S. market. Consistent with our previous work, we find that
companies with a high dividend yield and a low payout ratio had the
best performance when applying our backtest methodology to
large-cap Canadian companies since 1990."

The quiet coup
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200905/imf-advice
"But I must tell you, to IMF officials, all of these crises
looked depressingly similar. Each country, of course, needed a loan,
but more than that, each needed to make big changes so that the
loan could really work. Almost always, countries in crisis need
to learn to live within their means after a period of excess -
exports must be increased, and imports cut - and the goal is to
do this without the most horrible of recessions. Naturally, the
fund's economists spend time figuring out the policies - budget,
money supply, and the like - that make sense in this context.
Yet the economic solution is seldom very hard to work out. No, the
real concern of the fund's senior staff, and the biggest
obstacle to recovery, is almost invariably the politics of countries
in crisis."

Is it back to the Fifties?
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Is-it-back-to-the-Fifties-$pd20090325-QFSZM?OpenDocument&src=sph
"US stocks have fallen more than 60 per cent in real terms since
the market peaked in 2000. Anyone who started saving 40 years
ago, when the postwar 'baby boom' generation was just joining the
workforce, has found that stocks have performed no better than
20-year government bonds since then, a forthcoming article by
Robert Arnott for the Journal of Indexes shows. These people want
to retire soon and the 'cult of the equity' has let them down."

Fairfax contrarian cashes in mightily
http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/609732
"Prem Watsa and his investment team have earned bragging rights
for the next 100 years. They sidestepped most of a 50 per cent
stock market crash. They bagged big profits by betting years in
advance that stock prices would fall and companies would go broke.
Meanwhile, their Toronto-based company clawed its way back from
junk bond status to investment grade, and its share prices rose
last year while most others fell."

The $2-Billion Man
http://www.torontolife.com/features/2-billion-man/
"Prem Watsa is the richest, savviest guy you've never heard of.
He predicted the crash of '87, the Japanese collapse of 1990 and
last year's meltdown, which he parlayed into a huge payoff. Now
he's gobbling up shares at rock-bottom prices."

Portfolio and its bubble solution
http://www.thedeal.com/dealscape/2009/03/portfolios_solution_to_bubbles.php
"Being skeptical about this project is not because I particularly
embrace the efficient market; it's because I don't, and I'm not
convinced that physicists or anyone else has a decent grasp of
complex systems, particularly those populated not by atoms but
by wayward humans out to make a buck. Indeed, there's nothing
wrong with using the markets as a test bed for physicists to probe
the phenomenon of complex systems. But prediction? This is the
great utopian dream of the technocrats: If we only had more data,
we could model anything, predict everything."

New home sales fell 41%
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/new-home-sales-fell-41-in-february-2009/
"After incorrectly reporting the Existing Home Sales, the
mainstream media misread the Census department report of New Homes. No,
New Home Sales data did not improve. In fact, they were not
only not positive, they were actually horrific. The year over year
number was a terrible down 41%. Sales from this same period a
year ago have nearly been halved."

Look who's getting the goodies
http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/25/news/economy/sloan_execs.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2009032604
"To understand what Washington is actually up to, you have to
watch what it does, not what it says. That's especially true when
it comes to Washington's role in the ongoing bailout of Wall
Street, part of its "let's hope this works" plan to revive the U.S.
economy. While Washington is setting the populist mob on the
individual American International Group employees who got a total
of $165 million in bonuses this year, far larger amounts of money
are being quietly handed to Wall Street through programs that
generate barely a peep of protest."

Have We Seen the Last of the Bear Raids?
http://www.andykessler.com/andy_kessler/2009/03/wsj-have-we-seen-the-last-of-the-bear-raids.html
"The whole exercise was stupid, akin to buying insurance from the
captain of the Titanic, who put the premiums in the ship's safe
and collected a tidy bonus for his efforts."

Botox earnings put crooked E in P/E
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_weil&sid=aB8yzWioG4g0
"Comprehensive income is the change in a company's shareholder
equity during a given period, excluding the effects of new capital
injections and dividend payments. By this measure, S&P 500
companies had combined losses in the past four quarters of about
$200 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and my own
review of the companies' financial reports. In other words, there
is no P/E ratio, because there is no E."

Long term performance of leveraged ETFs
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1344133
"In this paper, we study leveraged ETFs, in particular, Ultra
ETFs and UltraShort ETFs from the ProShares family. These Ultra
(UltraShort) ETFs are designed to provide twice (twice the
opposite) of the performance of the benchmark on a daily basis. We focus
on the relation between long term performance of leveraged ETFs
and benchmarks. Our results show that over holding periods no
greater than one month, an investor can safely assume that the
Ultra (UltraShort) ETF would provide twice the return (twice the
negative return) of the underlying benchmark. Over the holding
period of one quarter, the UltraShort ETFs can deviate from twice
the negative returns of the benchmark. For Ultra ETFs, this
deviation occurs when the holding period is one year. Overall our
results show that leveraged ETFs are not long term substitutes for
long or short positions of the benchmark indices."

Wall St. threatens to take ball, go home
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/218493/The-Empire-Strikes-Back-Wall-St.-Threatens-to-Take-Ball-Go-Home
"Wall Street has had enough and isn't going to take it any more.
After months of being battered by politicians, pundits and the
American people generally, the Empire is striking back"

Dan Ariely interview
http://podcast.cbc.ca/mp3/currentdonotusethis_20090324_13479.mp3
"Here's a reality check for you. The total cost of every burglary
theft, fraud, autotheft in US in 2004 was $16-Billion dollars.
That same year regular businesses in the US lost $600-Billion
dollars to employee theft and fraud. So who's the cheat?
Behavioural economists like Dan Ariely understand how dishonesty and
cheating is part of our less than rational relationship with money."
[Audio MP3]

Rated F for failure
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/16/opinion/16partnoy.html?_r=1&th&emc=th
"The reason for this continued reliance on ratings is simple: bad
regulation. We have seen up close how legal rules that depend
on ratings pervert the process."

Large stakes and big mistakes
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=774986
"Workers in a wide variety of jobs are paid based on performance,
which is commonly seen as enhancing effort and productivity
relative to non-contingent pay schemes. However, psychological
research suggests that excessive rewards can in some cases result in
a decline in performance. To test whether very high monetary
rewards can decrease performance, we conducted a set of
experiments in the US and India in which subjects worked on different
tasks and received performance-contingent payments that varied in
amount from small to very large relative to their typical levels
of pay. With some important exceptions, very high reward levels
had a detrimental effect on performance."

How Zimbabwe slew hyperinflation
https://secure.globeadvisor.com/servlet/ArticleNews/story/gam/20090323/RZIMBABWE23
"Zimbabwe's wily street hawkers have finally found a use for the
worthless 100-trillion-dollar banknotes that were issued here in
January. They sell the bizarre banknotes as souvenirs to
foreign tourists for $2 each. The currency with the never-ending
string of zeroes is quickly fading into history, just two months
after the latest notes were printed by the inexhaustible central
bank. Also disappearing is Zimbabwe's phenomenal level of
hyperinflation, which last year reached a stunning 89.7 sextillion per
cent (a number expressed with 21 zeroes), making it the most
extreme hyperinflation crisis of any country in modern times."

Mass hysteria over AIG
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=atlHxXH7FweQ&refer=columnist_lewis
"Since the beginning of the crisis I've wondered why the
government has found neither the will nor the way to attack the root of
the problem -- the people who borrowed money to buy homes they
shouldn't have bought. Now I think I understand. It would be too
simple. People would understand a lot of small payments to the
guy down the street who doesn't deserve them, and become
outraged. Far better to throw trillions at opaque corporations, the
inner workings of which no one still really understands."

ETF rule: Keep it simple
https://secure.globeadvisor.com/servlet/ArticleNews/story/gam/20090323/RINDEX23
"Indexing is a simple low-cost way to obtain a diversified
investment portfolio which tracks the markets. At least that's the
theory. Problem is, many investors get led astray. Before they know
it their portfolios become jam-packed with the new breed of
expensive and risky exchange-traded funds. What was once a solid
investment portfolio becomes a speculative one."

Argentina downgraded
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=apN5Xd3qU8I8&refer=home
"MSCI Barra, whose stock indexes are tracked by investors with $3
trillion in funds, downgraded the country to a 'frontier'
economy from an 'emerging market' in February, citing its
restrictions on foreign capital. That puts South America's second-biggest
economy, after Brazil, in a category with Sri Lanka and
Kazakhstan."

Genuine values
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_dorfman&sid=anRcJ7S9LJlw
"I think investors will see some dramatic recoveries by banks,
brokerage houses and insurance companies over the next two to
three years. Three financial stocks that I like (and own) are
Berkshire Hathaway Inc., Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc. and Goldman Sachs
Group Inc."




Tip Sheet
http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/tipsheet.shtml

Dividend Kings
http://www.ndir.com/SI/strategy/tipsheet/03-18-2009-Dividend-Kings.shtml
A quick look at where the 2009 class of dividend aristocrats
stands today.




DOW 30 Value Screens
http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy.shtml 

High Dividend Yield Stocks                   P/E P/B P/S P/D Yield
============================================ === === === === =====
General Electric  (GE)                        5   4   4   5    5
Pfizer  (PFE)                                 2   3   2   5    5
EI DuPont  (DD)                               3   2   4   5    5
AT&T  (T)                                     2   4   2   5    5
Verizon  (VZ)                                 2   3   3   5    5
Merck  (MRK)                                  5   2   1   4    4
Caterpillar  (CAT)                            5   2   5   4    4
Kraft  (KFT)                                  2   4   3   4    4
American Express  (AXP)                       5   4   3   4    4
Boeing  (BA)                                  4   0   5   4    4
More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/dogs.shtml 

Value Ratio Stocks                           P/E P/B P/S P/D  VR
============================================ === === === === =====
General Electric  (GE)                        5   4   4   5   0.5
Caterpillar  (CAT)                            5   2   5   4   0.9
American Express  (AXP)                       5   4   3   4   1.2
Pfizer  (PFE)                                 2   3   2   5   1.2
Merck  (MRK)                                  5   2   1   4   1.3
EI DuPont  (DD)                               3   2   4   5   1.4
Chevron  (CVX)                                5   4   5   3   1.5
AT&T  (T)                                     2   4   2   5   1.9
Verizon  (VZ)                                 2   3   3   5   2.2
Boeing  (BA)                                  4   0   5   4   2.2
More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/valueratio.shtml 

Graham Stocks                            P/E P/B P/D   G$   dG$(%)
======================================== === === === ====== ======
Bank of America  (BAC)                    2   5   1   18.41 150.79
General Electric  (GE)                    5   4   5   19.46  80.50
American Express  (AXP)                   5   4   4   22.64  56.70
Walt Disney  (DIS)                        4   5   1   28.79  54.89
Chevron  (CVX)                            5   4   3  105.71  53.43
JP Morgan Chase  (JPM)                    1   5   1   32.47  18.50
Caterpillar  (CAT)                        5   2   4   35.66  17.51
Kraft  (KFT)                              2   4   4   25.42  11.06
AT&T  (T)                                 2   4   5   28.02   7.78
Pfizer  (PFE)                             2   3   5   14.98   6.72
Hewlett-Packard  (HPQ)                    3   3   1   34.53   3.60
More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/graham.shtml 



S&P/TSX60 Value Screens
http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy.shtml 

High Dividend Yield Stocks              P/E P/B P/S P/C P/D Yield*
======================================= === === === === === ======
Biovail (BVF)                            4   2   1   2   5    5
Bank of Montreal (BMO)                   4   5   4   2   5    5
CIBC (CM)                                0   3   2   0   5    5
Manulife (MFC)                           3   5   4   5   5    5
Sun Life (SLF)                           2   5   4   3   5    5
Transalta (TA)                           2   3   3   4   5    5
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)                3   3   3   5   5    5
National Bank of Canada (NA)             3   4   3   0   5    5
BCE (BCE)                                1   4   3   4   5    5
Toronto Dominion Bank (TD)               4   4   3   5   4    4
More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/dogs.shtml 

Value Ratio Stocks                       P/E P/B P/S P/C P/D  VR
======================================== === === === === === =====
Biovail (BVF)                             4   2   1   2   5   0.5
Bank of Montreal (BMO)                    4   5   4   2   5   1.1
Encana (ECA)                              5   3   2   4   3   1.4
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)                 3   3   3   5   5   1.7
Manulife (MFC)                            3   5   4   5   5   1.8
Toronto Dominion Bank (TD)                4   4   3   5   4   1.8
Telus (T)                                 4   3   3   4   4   1.9
National Bank of Canada (NA)              3   4   3   0   5   1.9
Power Corporation of Canada (POW)         3   5   0   0   4   1.9
Royal Bank (RY)                           3   2   2   4   4   2.2
More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/valueratio.shtml 

Graham Stocks                            P/E P/B P/D   G$   dG$(%)
======================================== === === === ====== ======
Teck Cominco (TCK.B)                      5   5   0   26.82 246.91
Talisman Energy (TLM)                     5   4   2   27.58 109.89
Petro Canada (PCA)                        5   5   3   69.15  99.39
Inmet Mining (IMN)                        5   5   1   59.76  76.19
Agrium (AGU)                              5   3   1   81.00  70.63
Encana (ECA)                              5   3   3   85.78  64.96
Bank of Montreal (BMO)                    4   5   5   51.01  52.69
Husky Energy (HSE)                        5   3   0   40.85  51.24
Canadian Tire (CTC.A)                     4   4   2   65.37  50.43
Bombardier Cl.B (BBD.B)                   5   2   2    4.49  49.73
Nexen (NXY)                               5   3   2   31.59  46.11
Canadian Pacific Rail (CP)                4   4   3   58.23  45.47
Power Corporation of Canada (POW)         3   5   4   28.87  44.62
Manulife (MFC)                            3   5   5   21.00  40.03
Toronto Dominion Bank (TD)                4   4   4   60.96  38.99
Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ)          5   2   1   71.47  38.81
Gildan (GIL)                              4   4   0   14.26  35.90
Sun Life (SLF)                            2   5   5   28.78  28.39
Biovail (BVF)                             4   2   5   16.52  26.42
Telus (T)                                 4   3   4   41.89  19.33
National Bank of Canada (NA)              3   4   5   48.12  18.08
Weston George (WN)                        4   2   3   68.08  16.85
Brookfield A.M. (BAM.A)                   3   3   3   19.83  14.88
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)                 3   3   5   36.02  12.99
TransCanada (TRP)                         3   4   4   34.11  12.46
Enbridge (ENB)                            4   2   4   36.83   2.31
Royal Bank (RY)                           3   2   4   37.66   1.82
More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/graham.shtml 

*Notes: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/notes.shtml 


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Books for Stingy Investors

What Works On Wall Street
by James O'Shaughnessy

Historical stock data is what O'Shaughnessy's book is all about.
If you want to know how straightforward stock selection
techniques have done, pick up What Works on Wall Street and you'll find
out. O'Shaughnessy's book is a must have reference for any
serious student of the market.
Amazon Link: http://www.amazon.ca/exec/obidos/ASIN/0071452257/


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http://www.rotheryreport.com/ 

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ISSN 1499-2795 Copyright Norman Rothery, 2009.  All rights
reserved. The securities mentioned in this report are not appropriate
for all investors. Consult your professional investment advisor before
making any investment decision.  While all reasonable effort is made
to ensure the accuracy of information and data contained herein,
accuracy can not be guaranteed. Past performance is not a good
predictor of future performance.  Results are not guaranteed and we
assume no liability whatsoever for any material losses that may occur.
No compensation for suggesting particular securities or financial
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