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Stingy News Quarterly 2008: Q1 2007: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2006: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2004: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2003: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2002: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2001: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Stingy News Weekly 2008 05: 04 11 04: 06 13 20 27 03: 02 09 16 23 30 02: 03 10 17 24 01: 06 13 20 27 2007 12: 02 09 16 23 30 11: 04 11 18 25 10: 07 14 21 28 09: 02 09 16 23 30 08: 05 12 19 26 07: 01 08 15 22 27 06: 03 10 17 23 05: 06 13 20 27 04: 01 08 15 22 29 03: 04 11 18 25 02: 04 11 18 25 01: 07 14 21 28 Dan's Reports Fund fees revisited T class funds Bonds vs. bond funds Bear market protectors Investing in bonds Ignore bonds at your peril Coping with change Future of trust funds Dilution trumps Are fees excessive? Performance anxiety Top advisory model? 81-106 a step back Poor fund classifications Pension shortfall A longer-term report card Information overload About Dan Privacy Policy |
The Stingy News Weekly (05/13/2007)"The intelligent investor is likely to need considerable will power to keep from following the crowd." - Benjamin Graham Stingy Links http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/articles/articlearchive.shtml Munger speaks on Berkshire's success http://news.morningstar.com/article/article.asp?id=193723 ""I didn't set out in life to become the assistant leader of a cult." That is how Charlie Munger welcomed shareholders to the 2007 Wesco (WSC) annual meeting. The cult, of course, is the loyal throng of value investors that invade both Omaha, Neb., and Pasadena, Calif., each spring to learn at the feet at Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, and as Munger noted "to leave a little wiser than they came."" What Buffett might buy http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/may2007/db20070507_334857.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_top+story "If Buffett is intent on finding a mega-deal, what kind of target is most likely? For starters, the sage favors high-quality businesses with long-term competitive advantages, what he describes as "a moat" that keeps rivals at a safe distance. He shies away from businesses he doesn't understand, such as technology. Perhaps most important, Buffett is looking for a well-run company with a solid management team that he doesn't have to go in and replace. And he's not chasing after a quick buck. Once he buys a company, he wants to hold on for the long haul, unlike most private equity firms." Is the market rational? http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2002/12/09/333473/index.htm "That brings us back to Thaler, who was working on a Ph.D. in economics at Rochester in the early 1970s. His dissertation was an attempt to put a value on human life by looking at how much more people were paid to work in risky fields like mining and logging. He was working on the assumption, of course, that people rationally weighed the risk of death in their decision to accept a job. Along the way Thaler decided to ask a few friends how much they'd be willing to pay to eliminate a one-in-1,000 chance of immediate death and how much they would have to be paid to willingly accept an extra one-in-1,000 chance of immediate death. What he found was that they wouldn't pay much for the extra margin of safety but demanded huge sums to accept added risk--which isn't, strictly speaking, rational. "I came to two conclusions about these answers," Thaler wrote years later. "(1) I had better get back to running regressions if I want to graduate, and (2) the disparity between buying and selling prices was very interesting." Thaler did discuss his subversive thoughts with a few trusted colleagues and people from other disciplines. One of those people happened to be a newly minted psychology Ph.D., who sent Thaler a copy of a 1974 article by Israeli psychology professors Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman. (Tversky died in 1996; if he were still around, he surely would have shared in this year's Nobel.) The article argued that in making decisions involving probability and risk, people rely on mental shortcuts that "are highly economical and usually effective but ... lead to systematic and predictable errors." It was that last part that was so significant. That people make judgment errors wasn't news, but if those errors were "systematic and predictable," well, that was something an equation-wielding economist could get up and run with." Regaled with Buffettania http://www.forbes.com/home/opinions/2007/05/07/buffett-berkshire-omaha-oped-cx_bl_0507buffett.html "Will global liquidity keep driving prices higher? The second-richest man in America is "baffled by the liquidity sloshing around in the world. It's hard to find very much fear. That's the trouble with a complacent world." Chimed in Munger: "Eventually we'll have an event that will change people's perception. We always do." What will it be? Privately, Buffett worries about a debacle many times Long Term Capital's demise in 1998. He suggests it will be many hedge funds all with the same highly leveraged positions in derivatives that will be damnably hard--if not impossible--to unwind." Watsa's foray at Torstar http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/story.html?id=9d2c7b02-be53-47ef-8306-5b32c46e921d "What is he doing? That has been the reaction in some quarters to the recent news that Prem Watsa's Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. has bought a good-sized position in the class B nonvoting shares in Torstar Corp., a company controlled by the owners of its class A voting shares. It's not known what value investor Watsa plans to do with what is his first such foray, but there are precedents for such activity." S&P/TSX60 Value Screens http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy.shtml High Dividend Yield Stocks P/E P/B P/S P/C P/D Yield* ============================================== === === === === === ====== Biovail (BVF) 1 2 1 5 5 5 Bank of Montreal (BMO) 5 4 3 3 5 5 BCE (BCE) 3 4 4 5 5 5 Transalta (TA) 1 4 3 4 5 5 TransCanada (TRP) 3 4 2 4 5 5 National Bank of Canada (NA) 5 4 4 3 5 5 Enbridge (ENB) 3 3 5 3 5 5 Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) 4 3 3 2 5 5 Royal Bank (RY) 4 3 3 2 5 5 Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) 3 4 3 3 4 4 More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/dogs.shtml Value Ratio Stocks P/E P/B P/S P/C P/D VR ============================================== === === === === === ===== Bank of Montreal (BMO) 5 4 3 3 5 3.3 National Bank of Canada (NA) 5 4 4 3 5 3.4 Teck Cominco Limited (TCK.B) 5 5 4 5 4 4.0 BCE (BCE) 3 4 4 5 5 4.1 CIBC (CM) 5 3 3 2 4 4.3 Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) 4 3 3 2 5 4.4 Royal Bank (RY) 4 3 3 2 5 4.9 Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) 3 4 3 3 4 5.1 TransCanada (TRP) 3 4 2 4 5 5.3 Sun Life (SLF) 4 5 4 2 4 5.6 More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/valueratio.shtml Graham Stocks P/E P/B P/D G$ dG$(%) ============================================== === === === ====== ====== Teck Cominco Limited (TCK.B) 5 5 4 61.24 29.58 ACE Aviation Holdings Inc. (ACE.B) 5 5 0 34.76 16.45 More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/graham.shtml *Notes: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/notes.shtml Books for Stingy Investors Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Next Generation by David Dreman David Dreman has provided perhaps the best modern book on value investing and the markets. He goes from the basics through to advanced topics and the sheer amount of useful information in his book is remarkable. As an added bonus, Dreman's writing is clear and approachable - a feat rarely seen in investing books. All but the most grizzled market veteran will pick up a few good ideas from Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Next Generation. Amazon Link: http://www.amazon.ca/exec/obidos/ASIN/0684813505/ Stock Research From Dan Hallett & Associates The Rothery Report http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/store.shtml The Rothery Report provides research on select deep-value stocks in North America. Discover overlooked and undervalued stocks in quarterly investment reports which provide detailed analysis of Canadian and U.S. stocks. Weekly email news and additional updates keep subscribers informed about new opportunities and developments. Rothery Report Performance (03/31/2001 to 03/31/2007) Average Capital Gain Average Holding Period Sold Stocks: 75.5% Sold Stocks: 2.1 Years All Stocks: 51.5% All Stocks: 2.3 Years Special Bonus Reports: Top Smaller Stocks 2007 http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/store/TopSmallStocks.shtml Learn More http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/store.shtml Subscribe Today http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/store/order.shtml If you'd like to suggest The Stingy News to a friend, please point them to: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/cgi-bin/email.cgi Please visit the StingyInvestor website at http://www.stingyinvestor.com To (un)subscribe please use our email centre at http://www.stingyinvestor.com/cgi-bin/email.cgi Email comments or questions to info@stingyinvestor.com Refer to legal & conflict of interest disclaimers at http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/legal.shtml ISSN 1499-2795 Copyright Dan Hallett and Associates Inc., 2007. All rights reserved. The securities mentioned in this report are not appropriate for all investors. Consult your professional investment advisor before making any investment decision. While all reasonable effort is made to ensure the accuracy of information and data contained herein, accuracy can not be guaranteed. Past performance is not a good predictor of future performance. Results are not guaranteed and we assume no liability whatsoever for any material losses that may occur. No compensation for suggesting particular securities or financial advisors is solicited or accepted. The information in this newsletter, and in its related website, is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, financial advice or recommendations. Investing in stocks can be risky and may result in substantial losses. A Dan Hallett and Associates Inc.(DH&A) publication. DH&A is registered as Investment Counsel in the province of Ontario. DH&A, or related-parties may have an interest in the securities mentioned. | ||||
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A Dan Hallett and Associates Inc. publication. Norm Rothery, Ph.D., CFA, is the Chief Investment Strategist at Dan Hallett and Associates Inc. (DH&A) and the founder of StingyInvestor.com. DH&A is registered as Investment Counsel in the province of Ontario. Norm, DH&A, or related-parties may have an interest in the securities mentioned. More... | |||||