The Stingy News Weekly (08/16/2014)
Stingy News Flash
I posted last year's Top 200 and Top 500 articles this week. They originally appeared in MoneySense magazine last December and are now a little dated.
New from StingyInvestor
The Top 200 for 2014
"We're thrilled to report our efforts have paid off handsomely since last time. Our All-Star stocks, which combine the best growth and value characteristics, gained an average of 55.0% since last year. By way of comparison the Canadian market, as represented by the S&P/TSX Composite ETF (XIC), gained 7.2% over the same period."
Top 500 U.S. Stocks for 2014
"Last year's All-Star stocks turned out to be great buys, gaining an average 38.7%. In comparison, the U.S. stock market, represented by the S&P 500 (SPY), climbed only 23.3% since last time. The U.S. All-Stars beat the market by 15.4 percentage points, not including dividends."
The remarkable truth about 52-week highs
"if one of your stocks hits a new 52-week high, you probably shouldn't be nervous. In fact, perhaps you should be excited." [Momentum Investing]
The internet's original sin
"Once we've assumed that advertising is the default model to support the Internet, the next step is obvious: We need more data so we can make our targeted ads appear to be more effective. Ceglowski explains, 'We're addicted to 'big data' not because it's effective now, but because we need it to tell better stories.' So we build businesses that promise investors that advertising will be more invasive, ubiquitous, and targeted and that we will collect more data about our users and their behavior." [Media]
Print is down, and now out
"A year ago last week, it seemed as if print newspapers might be on the verge of a comeback, or at least on the brink of, well, survival." [Media]
Are cash flows better return predictors?
"Novy-Marx (2013) shows that profitability, measured by gross profits-to-assets, predicts the cross-section of average returns just as well as book-to-market ratios do. We find that, in our 1994-2013 sample of S&P 1500 stocks, cash flow measures are even better predictors of stock returns than various income statement-based measures. We present a procedure for transforming indirect cash flow method statements into disaggregated and more direct estimates of cash flows from operations and other sources. We then derive 'direct method' cash flow measures and form portfolio deciles based on these measures. Stocks in the highest cash flow decile outperform those in the lowest cash flow decile by over 10% annually after controlling for well-known risk factors. Our results are robust to the investment horizon, and controlling for sector differences. We also show that, in addition to operating cash flow information, cash taxes and capital expenditures provide incremental predictive power." [Academia]
The mystery of lofty stock market elevations
"I wrote with some concern about the high ratio in this space a little over a year ago, when it stood at around 23, far above its 20th-century average of 15.21. (CAPE stands for cyclically adjusted price-earnings.) Now it is above 25, a level that has been surpassed since 1881 in only three previous periods: the years clustered around 1929, 1999 and 2007. Major market drops followed those peaks." [Shiller]
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