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Stingy News Quarterly 2008: Q1 Q2 Q3 2007: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2006: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2004: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2003: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2002: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2001: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Stingy News Weekly 2008 11: 02 09 10: 05 12 19 26 09: 07 14 21 28 08: 01 10 17 24 31 07: 06 13 20 27 06: 01 08 15 22 29 05: 04 11 18 25 04: 06 13 20 27 03: 02 09 16 23 30 02: 03 10 17 24 01: 06 13 20 27 Dan's Reports Perspective on the bear Dilution excessive Fund fees revisited T class funds Bonds vs. bond funds Bear market protectors Investing in bonds Ignore bonds at your peril Coping with change Future of trust funds Dilution trumps Are fees excessive? Performance anxiety Top advisory model? 81-106 a step back Poor fund classifications Pension shortfall A longer-term report card Information overload About Dan Privacy Policy |
The Stingy News Weekly (08/17/2008)"Get inside information from the president and you will probably lose half of your money. If you get it from the chairman of the board, you will lose all of it." - Jim Rogers Stingy Links http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/articles/articlearchive.shtml Another inconvenient truth http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11921663 "America's infamous debt clock, near New York.s Times Square, was switched off in 2000 after the national burden started to fall thanks to several years of Clinton-era budget restraint. However, it was reactivated two years later as the politically motivated urge to splurge once again took over. The debt has since swollen to $9.5 trillion, with the value of unfunded public promises (if you include entitlements such as Social Security and Medicare) nudging $53 trillion.or $175,000 for every American.and rising. On current trends, these will amount to some 240% of GDP by 2040, up from a just-about-manageable 65% today." Opening the door to savings https://secure.globeadvisor.com/servlet/ArticleNews/story/gam/20080814/RCESTNICK14 "I'm commonly asked: "Now that I'm married, what tax benefits exist?" The fact is, having a spouse can come with some tax opportunities. And by the way, a spouse under Canadian tax law includes a common-law partner (same sex or not) that you've been living with in a conjugal relationship for 12 months or more. So, when I use the term "spouse" today, I'm referring to legally married couples, or those common-law partners I just mentioned. While there will be other ideas, the following are six of the key opportunities available to spouses." Foreclosure fallout: Houses go for a $1 http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080813/METRO/808130360/&imw=Y "So desperate was the bank owner of 8111 Traverse Street to unload the property that it agreed to pay $2,500 in sales commission and another $1,000 bonus for closing the $1 sale; the bank also will pay $500 of the buyer's closing costs. Throw in back taxes and a water bill, and unloading the house will cost the bank about $10,000." Longleaf Partners Q2 2008 letter http://www.longleafpartners.com/pdfs/08_q2.pdf "We do not know how long economic uncertainty and shareholder fear will last. Bear markets do not die of old age. The mispricing, however, is providing the opportunity to own high quality companies with terrific five year outlooks that imply high long-term IRRs. We are aggressively adding personal capital to the Funds and encourage our partners to do the same. Given that bullish sentiment is at its lowest level in 14 years and that some are recommending exiting equities altogether, there is plenty of panic in the air. Historically, the best time to invest has been when owning stocks has felt the worst." Third Avenue Q3 2008 letter http://www.thirdavenuefunds.com/taf/documents/shareholderletters/aboutus-letters-08Q3.pdf "Distress securities seem to be trading at ultra attractive prices. Discounts have widened appreciably for the common stocks of very well-capitalized companies where the common stocks trade at meaningful discounts from readily ascertainable net asset values ('NAVs'); and where the prospects appear good that over the next five years, such NAVs will increase by not less than 10% per annum compounded. Admittedly, near-term outlooks are generally poor. But, TAVF focuses not on the near-term outlook, but on buying what is 'safe and cheap'. I have the unique perspective of being a distressed investor for many decades, and safe and cheap on a long-term basis seems to be about as attractive as it was in the 1970s." The wisdom of crowds? http://www.slate.com/id/2196827/ "When people discover that I am an economist, they rarely ask me for my views on subjects that economists know a bit about - such as how to respond to climate change or pay less at a supermarket. Instead, they ask me what will happen to the economy. Why is it that people won't take "I don't really know" for an answer? People often chuckle about the forecasting skills of economists, but after the snickers die down, they keep demanding more forecasts. Is there any reason to believe that economists can deliver?" One third owe more than house is worth http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3rsglZgqmTs&refer=home "Almost one-third of U.S. homeowners who bought in the last five years now owe more on their mortgages than their properties are worth, according to Zillow.com, an Internet provider of home valuations." Value stock losers Buffett, Miller poised as winners http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=asNu6HYGu7eI&refer=home "The five prior times since 1952 that growth beat value two years in a row, the latter group recovered and won by 17 percentage points annually on average for seven years, the data from Societe Generale show. Cheap stocks are becoming more attractive because of tumbling commodity shares, which had led the five-year bull market that ended in October, according to Societe Generale's James Montier" Bankrupt retailers: pushed to the brink http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/aug2008/db20080811_680564.htm "All filers are covered by the new bankruptcy law, but the changes were particularly harsh on retailers. For companies that already are short of cash - and, in the current environment, unlikely to find new financing - these new provisions in the law can amount to a death sentence. "Liquidity is sucked out of the debtor in a way that it becomes hard to survive," says Lawrence Gottlieb, chair of the bankruptcy and restructuring practice at New York law firm Cooley Godward Kronish, who has represented creditors' committees in the bankruptcies of Sharper Image and Linens 'n Things." S&P/TSX60 Value Screens http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy.shtml High Dividend Yield Stocks P/E P/B P/S P/C P/D Yield* ========================================== === === === === === ====== Biovail (BVF) 4 5 4 5 5 5 Bank of Montreal (BMO) 4 4 4 1 5 5 CIBC (CM) 0 4 5 5 5 5 National Bank of Canada (NA) 2 4 4 4 5 5 Telus (T) 5 4 4 5 5 5 Husky Energy (HSE) 5 2 2 3 5 5 Royal Bank (RY) 3 2 4 5 5 5 Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) 3 2 3 1 5 5 Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) 4 3 3 2 5 5 TransCanada (TRP) 3 3 3 4 4 4 More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/dogs.shtml Value Ratio Stocks P/E P/B P/S P/C P/D VR ========================================== === === === === === ===== Biovail (BVF) 4 5 4 5 5 0.6 Thomson (TOC) 5 4 2 2 4 1.9 Telus (T) 5 4 4 5 5 1.9 Husky Energy (HSE) 5 2 2 3 5 2.0 Bank of Montreal (BMO) 4 4 4 1 5 2.0 BCE (BCE) 5 3 3 4 4 2.6 Sun Life (SLF) 4 5 5 1 4 2.8 Royal Bank (RY) 3 2 4 5 5 2.9 Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) 4 3 3 2 5 3.0 Petro Canada (PCA) 5 4 5 4 3 3.1 More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/valueratio.shtml Graham Stocks P/E P/B P/D G$ dG$(%) ========================================== === === === ====== ====== ACE Aviation (ACE.B) 5 5 0 123.38 945.61 Thomson (TOC) 5 4 4 55.77 48.79 Magna Cl.A (MG.A) 4 5 3 95.15 48.17 Petro Canada (PCA) 5 4 3 66.56 48.04 Biovail (BVF) 4 5 5 14.12 37.05 Canadian Tire (CTC.A) 4 5 3 65.11 25.76 Sun Life (SLF) 4 5 4 49.16 22.99 Inmet Mining (IMN) 5 4 1 68.89 20.55 Telus (T) 5 4 5 44.84 16.50 Weston George (WN) 4 5 4 52.54 13.93 Nova (NCX) 5 3 2 32.32 13.28 First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM) 5 2 2 68.79 11.12 Bank of Montreal (BMO) 4 4 5 49.94 5.78 Canadian Pacific Rail (CP) 3 4 3 64.85 2.29 Talisman Energy (TLM) 5 3 2 17.58 0.55 More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/graham.shtml *Notes: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/notes.shtml Switch to the HTML version if the tables aren't formatted properly. http://www.stingyinvestor.com/cgi-bin/email.cgi Books for Stingy Investors Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist by Roger Lowenstein The Making of an American Capitalist is the best biography of Warren Buffett that I've read. By reading this book, you'll find out how a young Buffett made money selling Coca-Cola to his friends and how an older Buffett cashed in with Coke's stock. You'll also discover why Warren started buying Berkshire Hathaway's stock below $8 per share and how he boosted its value to lofty heights (currently near $80,000 per share). The Making of an American Capitalist is a must have for Buffett fans. Amazon Link: http://www.amazon.ca/exec/obidos/ASIN/0385484917/ Stock Research From Dan Hallett & Associates The Rothery Report http://www.rotheryreport.com/ The Rothery Report provides research on select deep-value stocks in North America. Discover overlooked and undervalued stocks in quarterly investment reports which provide detailed analysis of Canadian and U.S. stocks. Weekly email news and additional updates keep subscribers informed about new opportunities and developments. Rothery Report Performance (03/31/2001 to 06/30/2008) Average Capital Gain Average Holding Period 40.7% 2.4 Years Learn More http://www.rotheryreport.com/store/store.shtml Subscribe Today http://www.rotheryreport.com/store/order.shtml If you'd like to suggest The Stingy News to a friend, please point them to: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/cgi-bin/email.cgi Please visit the StingyInvestor website at http://www.stingyinvestor.com To (un)subscribe please use our email centre at http://www.stingyinvestor.com/cgi-bin/email.cgi Email comments or questions to info@stingyinvestor.com Refer to legal & conflict of interest disclaimers at http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/legal.shtml Privacy Policy http://www.ndir.com/SI/legal/privacy.shtml We do not rent or sell our email list to third parties. ISSN 1499-2795 Copyright Dan Hallett and Associates Inc., 2008. All rights reserved. The securities mentioned in this report are not appropriate for all investors. Consult your professional investment advisor before making any investment decision. While all reasonable effort is made to ensure the accuracy of information and data contained herein, accuracy can not be guaranteed. Past performance is not a good predictor of future performance. Results are not guaranteed and we assume no liability whatsoever for any material losses that may occur. No compensation for suggesting particular securities or financial advisors is solicited or accepted. The information in this newsletter, and in its related website, is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, financial advice or recommendations. Investing in stocks can be risky and may result in substantial losses. A Dan Hallett and Associates Inc.(DH&A) publication. DH&A is registered as Investment Counsel in the province of Ontario. DH&A, or related-parties may have an interest in the securities mentioned. | ||||
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A Dan Hallett and Associates Inc. publication. Norm Rothery, Ph.D., CFA, is the Chief Investment Strategist at Dan Hallett and Associates Inc. (DH&A) and the founder of StingyInvestor.com. DH&A is registered as Investment Counsel in the province of Ontario. Norm, DH&A, or related-parties may have an interest in the securities mentioned. More... | |||||