"Volatility is a symptom that people have no idea of the
underlying value"  - Jeremy Grantham


Stingy Links
http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/articles/articlearchive.shtml

The market's silver linings
http://www.independent.co.uk/money/invest-save/the-markets-silver-linings-957705.html
"Bolton's reasons for optimism aren't macroeconomic; the UK is
almost certainly in recession for the first time in almost two
decades. But he believes the high level of dividend yields compared
to gilt yields, and the large cash positions in mutual funds
and hedge funds, are good indicators that the market's fortunes
may be about to change. "In some sectors, I'm seeing the lowest
valuations I've seen in more than 30 years," Bolton says. He says
he likes the look of the consumer cyclical sectors, such as the
general retailers and media stocks. "Media has underperformed
the market for the last seven consecutive years, and both [retail
and media] are unloved by institutional investors [at the
moment]," he says."

How this bear market compares
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/10/11/business/20081011_BEAR_MARKETS.html
"The current bear market is already among the worst in history.
Here is how it lines up - in losses and length - with those of
the lasy 80 years."

U.S. will buy bank equity
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=am3ynGj3_6SI&refer=home
"U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the U.S. will buy
equity 'as soon as we can' in banks and other financial
institutions to restore market stability and revive economic growth."

The new age of frugality
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_42/b4104054847273.htm
"On a shady lane in New Hope, Pa., a quiet revolution in American
culture may be taking shape. Here, a family of four lives in a
white, colonial-style house in a manner that once would have
been considered All-American but more recently has been seen as
just plain weird: They're frugal."

They warned us about the mortgage crisis
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_42/b4104036827981.htm
"Some states, including North Carolina and Georgia, passed laws
aimed at deterring rash loans only to have federal authorities
undercut them. In Iowa and other states, mortgage mills arranged
to be acquired by nationally regulated banks and in the process
fended off more-assertive state supervision. In Ohio the story
took a different twist: State lawmakers acting at the behest of
lenders squelched an attempt by the Cleveland City Council to slow
the subprime frenzy. A number of factors contributed to the
mortgage disaster and credit crunch. Interest rate cuts and
unprecedented foreign capital infusions fueled thoughtless lending on
Main Street and arrogant gambling on Wall Street. The trading of
esoteric derivatives amplified risks it was supposed to mute.
One cause, though, has been largely overlooked: the stifling of
prescient state enforcers and legislators who tried to contain the
greed and foolishness. They were thwarted in many cases by
Washington officials hostile to regulation and a financial industry
adept at exploiting this ideology."

Lehman credit-swap auction sets payout
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ainXunmcK3kw&refer=home
"Sellers of credit-default protection on bankrupt Lehman Brothers
Holdings Inc. will have to pay 91.375 cents on the dollar to
settle the contracts, setting up the biggest-ever payout in the
$55 trillion market."

Defaults and a near-death experience
http://www.forbes.com/home/2008/10/09/banking-finance-history-oped-cx_jsg_1010gordon.html
"It is a remarkable fact that the United States, despite having
the largest, strongest and richest economy in the world, has--and
has always had--a banking and bank regulatory system that is an
irrational mess."

We have the tools to manage the crisis
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122360251805321773.html
"First of all, there is now clear recognition that the problem is
international, and international coordination and cooperation
is both necessary and underway. The days of finger pointing and
schadenfreude are over. The concerted reduction in central bank
interest rates is one concrete manifestation of that fact. More
important in existing circumstances is the clear determination of
our Treasury, of European finance ministries, and of central
banks to support and defend the stability of major international
banks. That approach extends to providing fresh capital to
supplement private funds if necessary."

Eveillard proteges prowl for bargains
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7846181
"The two, who hunt the globe for companies whose worth they
believe analysts have misjudged, viewed International Speedway more
as a media company. It's a classic page out of the playbook of
value investors, something that comes naturally to de Vaulx and de
Lardemelle, who worked for years under one of the best:
Jean-Marie Eveillard."

Buying the bargains in health care, energy
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/health-care-energy-hold-many/story.aspx?guid={87D89662-3829-4292-BC86-6DA45F554C11}&dist=msr_1
"Dorfman noted that drug-company stocks are selling at similar
multiples to tobacco stocks, "and the last time I looked, tobacco
stocks didn't save people's lives." After five years of being
sold hard, Dorfman likes the look of pharmaceutical stocks, and he
also is interested in metals and energy stocks because they
soared early in the year and have now been hammered to bargain
levels. Dorfman also suggested that investors avoid the "glamour
premium" of gold stocks."

Profit from panic
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10441591/1/profit-from-panic-with-businesses-like-fairfax-linn.html
"The "other Berkshire" is Fairfax Financial a P&C insurer headed
by brilliant capital allocator Prem Watsa. Fairfax is about as
close as you can get to investing in a company that does great in
good markets and exceptionally well in disastrous ones."

Fear and value
http://www.capitalspectator.com/archives/2008/10/value_days_are.html
"The trend of late is clear: yields are rising, dramatically so
in recent months. European yields lead the pack at 4.93% at last
month's close, based on S&P Global Equity Indices. The U.S.,
Asia Pacific and the developed world-ex-US are also posting
substantially higher dividend yields compared to recent years. For
reasons that need no explanation, however, investors are reluctant
to avail themselves of these higher yields. For comparison, the
yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note closed out September
2008 at 3.85%."

Why the ECB can't fix Europe
http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/oct2008/gb2008108_873204.htm
"The European Central Bank joined the United States Federal
Reserve and other major central banks in cutting key interest rates
by half a point on Wednesday in a concerted move to stabilize
financial markets and avert recession, but the ECB's power to stem
the financial crisis in Europe is limited, economists say."

US open: happy anniversary
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/10/09/16866/us-open-happy-anniversary/
"There is still plenty of opportunity for financials to fall.
Paulson and the US Treasury are coming under increasing pressure to
follow the UK.s lead and recapitalise US banks. Paulson himself
has said he thinks more banks will fail. Credit markets are
still showing extreme stress. Commercial paper lending still has
not normalised and interbank rates continue to widen. The TED and
the Libor-OIS spreads are at all-time highs today."

Iceland takes over Kaupthing
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEQI8fdjiAJU&refer=home
"'It's difficult to find any parallels to what's happening in
Iceland in the industrialized world,' Jensen said. 'You'd have to
look to emerging markets, and after the Asian crisis, for
example, those economies contracted about 10 percent.' The debts of the
Icelandic banking system are too big for the government to
repay. 'There is no way that the Icelandic population can assume
responsibility for the private debt' that the banks have built up,
Haarde said yesterday."

Central banks cut rates in coordinated move
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aREZkHrskr_E&refer=home
"The Fed, ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Canada and Sweden's
Riksbank each cut their benchmark rates by half a percentage point.
The Bank of Japan, which didn't participate in the move, said it
supported the action. Switzerland also took part. Separately,
China's central bank lowered its key one-year lending rate by 0.27
percentage point. Today's decision follows a global meltdown
that sent U.S. stock indexes heading for their biggest annual
decline since 1937"

Fed to purchase U.S. commercial paper
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAyx4qPsKSZk&refer=home
"The Federal Reserve will create a special fund to purchase U.S.
commercial paper after the credit crunch threatened to cut off a
key source of funding for corporations."

3% days becoming the norm
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/10/3-days-becoming.html
"Oh what we all wouldn't give for just a week of sub-1% moves!
Over the last month (23 trading days), the S&P 500 has seen 10
days where the index rose or fell (mostly fell) by more than 3%.
You have to go all the way back to 1938 to find another one-month
period where there were this many 3% days. As shown in the chart
below, there were many multi-year periods between 1950 and 2007
where the S&P 500 didn't have even one 3% day. If you're not a
regular market participant and someone that is tells you we are
experiencing something that hasn't happened since the Great
Depression, they're not joking!"

Warren E. Buffett braves a crisis
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/06/business/06buffett.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin
"In the midst of a financial crisis, a towering figure of
American business steps forward with his reputation and financial
resources for public good and personal gain. Their times and
personalities are vastly different, of course. But J. Pierpont Morgan's
role in the Panic of 1907 has its echo in Warren E. Buffett's
actions during the current financial troubles."

Is junk a bargain?
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB122308748555304623.html
"The recent selloff has shocked junk investors, who had grown
used to monthly returns in a range of negative 1% to positive 2%.
Based on some statistical measures, September's 8% drop should
have occurred only once in 27,777 years, according to Leverage
World, a weekly publication of Garman Research."

Pursuit of an edge
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/05/business/05view.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
"This particular type of market failure occurs when two
conditions are met. First, people confront a gamble that offers a highly
probable small gain with only a very small chance of a
significant loss. Second, the rewards received by market participants
depend strongly on relative performance. These conditions have
caused the invisible hand to break down in multiple domains. In
unregulated housing markets, for example, there are invariably too
many dwellings built on flood plains and in earthquake zones.
Similarly, in unregulated labor markets, workers typically face
greater health and safety risks. It is no different in unregulated
financial markets, where easy credit terms almost always produce
an asset bubble."




Tip Sheet
http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/tipsheet.shtml

It's a long road to ruin
http://www.ndir.com/SI/strategy/tipsheet/10-10-2008-It-s-a-long-road-to-ruin.shtml
If we're in for a repeat of the 1930s, how far do we have to go?

We're number 1
http://www.ndir.com/SI/strategy/tipsheet/10-09-2008-We-re-number-1.shtml
A quick look at the market carnage.

Cash not credit
http://www.ndir.com/SI/strategy/tipsheet/10-05-2008-Cash-not-credit.shtml
Today we're looking for debt-light Canadian stocks trading at
low price-to-earnings ratios.




DOW 30 Value Screens
http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy.shtml 

High Dividend Yield Stocks                   P/E P/B P/S P/D Yield
============================================ === === === === =====
Citigroup (C)                                 0   5   2   5    5
Pfizer (PFE)                                  3   4   2   5    5
AT&T (T)                                      4   5   3   5    5
Verizon (VZ)                                  2   4   4   5    5
Bank of America (BAC)                         1   5   2   5    5
Alcoa (AA)                                    5   5   5   4    4
General Electric (GE)                         4   4   3   4    4
Merck (MRK)                                   2   2   1   4    4
EI DuPont (DD)                                4   3   3   4    4
Home Depot (HD)                               3   3   5   4    4
More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/dogs.shtml 

Value Ratio Stocks                           P/E P/B P/S P/D  VR
============================================ === === === === =====
Alcoa (AA)                                    5   5   5   4   0.8
Pfizer (PFE)                                  3   4   2   5   1.3
Chevron (CVX)                                 5   4   5   4   1.3
AT&T (T)                                      4   5   3   5   1.4
General Electric (GE)                         4   4   3   4   1.7
Caterpillar (CAT)                             5   2   4   3   1.8
EI DuPont (DD)                                4   3   3   4   1.8
Verizon (VZ)                                  2   4   4   5   1.9
Boeing (BA)                                   5   1   5   3   1.9
Merck (MRK)                                   2   2   1   4   1.9
More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/valueratio.shtml 

Graham Stocks                            P/E P/B P/D   G$   dG$(%)
======================================== === === === ====== ======
Alcoa (AA)                                5   5   4   28.48 153.17
Chevron (CVX)                             5   4   4   87.59  51.46
Bank of America (BAC)                     1   5   5   28.82  38.11
AT&T (T)                                  4   5   5   30.42  35.69
JP Morgan Chase (JPM)                     2   5   3   53.66  28.86
Walt Disney (DIS)                         4   4   1   29.65  28.68
General Electric (GE)                     4   4   4   25.50  18.59
American Express (AXP)                    5   3   2   26.31  13.67
Pfizer (PFE)                              3   4   5   16.88  11.50
Home Depot (HD)                           3   3   4   21.75  10.14
Verizon (VZ)                              2   4   5   29.11   8.74
Caterpillar (CAT)                         5   2   3   45.27   4.97
United Technologies (UTX)                 3   3   2   49.31   3.54
Exxon Mobil (XOM)                         4   2   1   63.28   1.48
EI DuPont (DD)                            4   3   4   33.79   1.16
More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/graham.shtml 



S&P/TSX60 Value Screens
http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy.shtml 

High Dividend Yield Stocks              P/E P/B P/S P/C P/D Yield*
======================================= === === === === === ======
Biovail (BVF)                            1   4   3   5   5    5
Bank of Montreal (BMO)                   3   4   2   1   5    5
CIBC (CM)                                0   3   1   4   5    5
Husky Energy (HSE)                       4   2   3   3   5    5
National Bank of Canada (NA)             2   4   2   4   5    5
Teck Cominco Limited (TCK.B)             5   4   3   4   5    5
Sun Life (SLF)                           4   5   4   2   5    5
Telus (T)                                4   3   3   4   5    5
Transalta (TA)                           2   1   3   3   5    5
Royal Bank (RY)                          3   2   2   5   4    4
More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/dogs.shtml 

Value Ratio Stocks                       P/E P/B P/S P/C P/D  VR
======================================== === === === === === =====
First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM)          5   5   4   5   3   0.6
Teck Cominco Limited (TCK.B)              5   4   3   4   5   0.9
Petro Canada (PCA)                        5   5   5   4   3   1.0
Husky Energy (HSE)                        4   2   3   3   5   1.0
Biovail (BVF)                             1   4   3   5   5   1.1
Sun Life (SLF)                            4   5   4   2   5   1.3
Bank of Montreal (BMO)                    3   4   2   1   5   1.3
Telus (T)                                 4   3   3   4   5   1.7
BCE (BCE)                                 4   3   3   4   4   1.8
Thomson (TOC)                             5   0   0   0   3   1.9
More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/valueratio.shtml 

Graham Stocks                            P/E P/B P/D   G$   dG$(%)
======================================== === === === ====== ======
ACE Aviation (ACE.B)                      5   5   0  193.43 3475.4
First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM)          5   5   3   81.67 243.00
Petro Canada (PCA)                        5   5   3   74.77 190.15
Magna Cl.A (MG.A)                         4   5   4   99.33 132.85
Inmet Mining (IMN)                        5   4   1   75.17 110.55
Teck Cominco Limited (TCK.B)              5   4   5   39.73 108.01
Sun Life (SLF)                            4   5   5   52.21  89.50
Talisman Energy (TLM)                     5   4   2   19.27  80.46
Nexen Inc. (NXY)                          5   4   1   28.77  77.49
Nova (NCX)                                5   4   2   33.89  73.45
Agrium (AGU)                              5   3   1   63.02  46.22
Bank of Montreal (BMO)                    3   4   5   54.27  45.70
Canadian Pacific Rail (CP)                4   4   3   65.99  42.13
Canadian Tire (CTC.A)                     4   4   2   66.89  41.15
BCE (BCE)                                 4   3   4   45.22  33.01
Husky Energy (HSE)                        4   2   5   41.28  29.08
Toronto Dominion Bank (TD)                3   4   4   67.13  27.86
Telus (T)                                 4   3   5   45.30  25.11
Suncor Energy (SU)                        4   2   1   32.77  18.04
National Bank of Canada (NA)              2   4   5   49.75  17.07
Weston George (WN)                        2   3   3   59.09   9.95
TransCanada (TRP)                         3   3   4   35.46   8.80
Encana (ECA)                              3   3   4   53.98   8.20
Manulife (MFC)                            3   3   3   31.86   5.35
Bombardier Cl.B (BBD.B)                   4   2   3    4.35   4.52
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)                 3   2   4   42.54   2.98
MDS Inc. (MDS)                            1   5   0   11.45   0.89
Yamana Gold Inc. (YRI)                    1   5   2    7.83   0.18
More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/graham.shtml 

*Notes: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/notes.shtml 


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Books for Stingy Investors

Mean Markets and Lizard Brains
by Terry Burnham

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You'll also discover how to profit from other investor's
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behavioural economics and it is very easy to digest - even for
new investors.
Amazon Link: http://www.amazon.ca/exec/obidos/ASIN/0471602450/


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http://www.rotheryreport.com/ 

The Rothery Report provides research on select deep-value stocks in
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Rothery Report Performance (03/31/2001 to 06/30/2008)
  Average Capital Gain    Average Holding Period
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http://www.rotheryreport.com/store/store.shtml

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http://www.rotheryreport.com/store/order.shtml 



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ISSN 1499-2795 Copyright Dan Hallett and Associates Inc., 2008.
All rights reserved. The securities mentioned in this report are not
appropriate for all investors. Consult your professional investment
advisor before making any investment decision.  While all reasonable
effort is made to ensure the accuracy of information and data
contained herein, accuracy can not be guaranteed. Past performance is
not a good predictor of future performance.  Results are not
guaranteed and we assume no liability whatsoever for any material
losses that may occur.  No compensation for suggesting particular
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information in this newsletter, and in its related website, is not
intended to be, nor does it constitute, financial advice or
recommendations.  Investing in stocks can be risky and may result in
substantial losses.  A Dan Hallett and Associates Inc.(DH&A)
publication.  DH&A is registered as Investment Counsel in the province
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