The Stingy News Weekly (12/04/2016)
New from StingyInvestor
Books for the holiday season
"Christmas is fast approaching and some us aren't looking forward to all of the shopping, cooking, and cleaning the holiday requires. That's why, after consuming the last of the figgy pudding, you might want to settle down by the fire to read a nice book. But instead of rereading the scandalous libel inflicted on poor Ebenezer Scrooge by Charles Dickens, you might opt for some lighter fare in the form of a good book on investing. Here are three recent offerings you should try."
"CAPE's value is not in predicting what a single asset class or market is going to do all by itself in a vacuum. But as we've intended to illustrate in this paper, when you use CAPE in the broader, logical way, the data seems to prove it's a wonderful timing tool." [Value Investing]
How much is enough?
"Step back a bit, however, and you will see that every money question eventually boils down to a single line of inquiry: How much is enough?" [Thrift]
Small bets, huge payoffs
"We discuss how a series of small bets can lead to disproportionally large nonlinear payoffs, in both life and markets." [Markets]
Mistakes of momentum investors
"It is important to remain focused on what is important - accumulating wealth while protecting yourself from severe bear markets. Once you have a good investment strategy, you need to be patient so it can do its work for you. Warren Buffett said the stock market is a mechanism for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient. This applies to momentum as well as other investors." [Momentum Investing]
Predicting 60/40 returns
"The result are likely forward real returns for a 60/40 portfolio in the 0-2% range pre-tax with more downside in my view than upside (post-tax - you can take off another 1-2%)." [Markets]
Kelly coin tossing
"Nothing sounds simpler than winning at such an outrageously rigged game. Yet, when it was played with real money in a controlled experiment, a surprising number of professional investors and finance students somehow managed to go bust." [$] [Math]
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