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The Stingy News Weekly (12/11/2011)


"Timidity prompted by past failures causes investors to miss the most important bull markets."
- Walter Schloss


Stingy Links

Bill Miller had a great run. But did his investors?
"The fund made 16.44% a year in gains and reinvested dividends during that period, but the average investor made only 11.34%. Miller's average investor actually underperformed the S&P (which returned 11.51% annually during his streak), even though his fund way outperformed the index. ... Interestingly, the presumably non-starstruck investors in Vanguard's plain-vanilla S&P 500 index fund (VFINX), which I also asked Morningstar to analyze, fell into the same trap. During Miller's 15-year hot streak, the index fund returned 11.41% -- but its average investor made only 7.96%."


The Long Shadow of German Hyperinflation
"The Germans' strict opposition to the monetary financing of governments isn't just petty legalism -- it's a bedrock principle, based in history, which was purposefully built into EU treaties and Bundesbank policies. It's worth revisiting why the memory of hyperinflation has seared itself into the minds of many Germans, and how it's shaping their thinking and the future of the euro itself."


Mandelbrot beats economics on markets
"Over the past 15 years or so, physicists have demonstrated this in mathematical studies of market volatility. Inspired by work of the mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot in the 1960s, these scientists have used enormous sets of historical data -- hundreds of millions of minute-by-minute prices stretching over more than a decade, and daily and monthly prices over half a century -- to show that large market movements, up or down, follow a single mathematical pattern. Larger movements of, say, 10 percent to 15 percent, are less likely than movements of 3 percent to 5 percent. And the probability of a movement decreases in simple inverse proportion to the cube of its size: If moves of 5 percent or more have a certain likelihood, then moves of 10 percent or more are 8 (2 cubed) times less likely, and moves of 20 percent or more are in turn 8 times even less likely. But they still occur with some regularity. This pattern, it turns out, can be seen in markets for stocks, foreign exchange and futures around the world."


How doctors die
"Years ago, Charlie, a highly respected orthopedist and a mentor of mine, found a lump in his stomach. He had a surgeon explore the area, and the diagnosis was pancreatic cancer. This surgeon was one of the best in the country. He had even invented a new procedure for this exact cancer that could triple a patientís five-year-survival oddsófrom 5 percent to 15 percentóalbeit with a poor quality of life. Charlie was uninterested. He went home the next day, closed his practice, and never set foot in a hospital again. He focused on spending time with family and feeling as good as possible. Several months later, he died at home. He got no chemotherapy, radiation, or surgical treatment. Medicare didnít spend much on him. Itís not a frequent topic of discussion, but doctors die, too. And they donít die like the rest of us. Whatís unusual about them is not how much treatment they get compared to most Americans, but how little. For all the time they spend fending off the deaths of others, they tend to be fairly serene when faced with death themselves. They know exactly what is going to happen, they know the choices, and they generally have access to any sort of medical care they could want. But they go gently."



DOW 30 Value Screens

High Dividend Yield StocksP/EP/BP/SYield
AT&T (T)2435
Verizon (VZ)2345
Merck (MRK)1425
Pfizer (PFE)3425
General Electric (GE)3535
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)2315
EI DuPont (DD)4144
Intel (INTC)4314
Procter & Gamble (PG)1324
Kraft (KFT)1434
Notes | More Info...


Low Price/Earnings StocksP/EP/BP/SYield
JP Morgan Chase (JPM)5533
Chevron (CVX)5454
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)5552
Microsoft (MSFT)5214
Exxon Mobil (XOM)5342
Alcoa (AA)4551
Intel (INTC)4314
EI DuPont (DD)4144
American Express (AXP)4221
Wal-Mart (WMT)4252
Notes | More Info...


Value Ratio StocksP/EP/BP/SYieldV.R.
JP Morgan Chase (JPM)55332.44
Chevron (CVX)54542.49
AT&T (T)24352.50
Verizon (VZ)23452.97
Microsoft (MSFT)52143.01
Intel (INTC)43143.28
General Electric (GE)35353.58
EI DuPont (DD)41443.60
Pfizer (PFE)34253.66
Exxon Mobil (XOM)53424.27
Notes | More Info...


US Stock SummaryYieldP/EV.R.
EI DuPont (DD)YYY
Intel (INTC)YYY
AT&T (T)YY
Chevron (CVX)YY
Exxon Mobil (XOM)YY
General Electric (GE)YY
JP Morgan Chase (JPM)YY
Microsoft (MSFT)YY
Pfizer (PFE)YY
Verizon (VZ)YY
Alcoa (AA)Y
American Express (AXP)Y
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)Y
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)Y
Kraft (KFT)Y
Merck (MRK)Y
Procter & Gamble (PG)Y
Wal-Mart (WMT)Y
Notes...



S&P/TSX60 Value Screens

High Dividend Yield StocksP/EP/BP/SYield
Enerplus (ERF)4415
Sun Life Financial (SLF)3555
Canadian Oil Sands (COS)5225
Penn West Petroleum (PWT)3525
TransAlta (TA)3435
BCE Inc. (BCE)3135
Power Corp of Canada (POW)4555
CIBC (CM)4335
Bank of Montreal (BMO)4435
Husky Energy (HSE)3445
Notes | More Info...


Low Price/Earnings StocksP/EP/BP/SYield
Research In Motion (RIM)5550
Bombardier (BBD.B)5153
Brookfield (BAM.A)5542
Agrium (AGU)5351
Canadian Oil Sands (COS)5225
Iamgold (IMG)5212
Inmet Mining (IMN)5421
Nexen (NXY)5542
Teck Resources (TCK.B)5433
Magna (MG)5553
Notes | More Info...


Value Ratio StocksP/EP/BP/SYieldV.R.
Enerplus (ERF)44151.21
Canadian Oil Sands (COS)52251.45
Sun Life Financial (SLF)35551.89
CIBC (CM)43351.97
Power Corp of Canada (POW)45552.05
Bank of Montreal (BMO)44352.17
TransAlta (TA)34352.23
National Bank (NA)43342.28
Manulife (MFC)45542.28
Penn West Petroleum (PWT)35252.38
Notes | More Info...


Canadian Stock SummaryYieldP/EV.R.
Canadian Oil Sands (COS)YYY
Bank of Montreal (BMO)YY
CIBC (CM)YY
Enerplus (ERF)YY
Penn West Petroleum (PWT)YY
Power Corp of Canada (POW)YY
Sun Life Financial (SLF)YY
TransAlta (TA)YY
Agrium (AGU)Y
BCE Inc. (BCE)Y
Bombardier (BBD.B)Y
Brookfield (BAM.A)Y
Husky Energy (HSE)Y
Iamgold (IMG)Y
Inmet Mining (IMN)Y
Magna (MG)Y
Manulife (MFC)Y
National Bank (NA)Y
Nexen (NXY)Y
Research In Motion (RIM)Y
Teck Resources (TCK.B)Y
Notes...



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