"Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything
that counts can be counted."  - Albert Einstein


Stingy Links
http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/articles/articlearchive.shtml

The case for Ebeneezer
http://www.lewrockwell.com/shaffer/shaffer93.html
"As I became older, I decided that Mr. Dickens had given Ebeneezer Scrooge
an undeserved reputation for villainy, placing him in such company as
Uriah Heep, Iago, Dr. Moriarty, or Snidely Whiplash, to name but a few. It is
my purpose, in making this holiday defense of my client, to present to you
a different interpretation of the story, that you will see the villainy
not in my client's character, but in Charles Dickens' miscasting of the
true heroes of the time of which he wrote, namely, the industrialists and
financiers who created that most liberating epoch in human history: the
industrial revolution."

Marty Whitman's big bets
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/site/14081545/?video=613034036&play=1
Whitman interview on CNBC. RDN, MTG, MBI, and ABK. Now that's distressed
investing!

Pain Street USA: '08 housing outlook
http://money.cnn.com/2007/12/19/real_estate/steeper_price_slump/index.htm?postversion=2007122109
"The United States is deep in its worst housing slump since the Great
Depression, and according to a new report, it's not going to get better any
time soon. In a new survey, Moody's Economy.com says many metro areas will
record losses of 20 percent or more during the downturn, with the national
median price for single-family homes dropping 13 percent through early
2009. Factoring in discount offers from sellers, the actual price decline
would be well over 15 percent. 80 of the 381 metro areas covered by the report
will record double-digit losses, according to the report. Most of the
worst-hit markets are in once high-flying areas such as California and
Florida."

Seize the day
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2008/0107/117.html
"Thomas Jefferson once said that banks are more dangerous than standing
armies. Certainly with Chairman Alan Greenspan at the helm of the Federal
Reserve this was the case. Under his leadership the Fed was instrumental in
creating two bubbles. The dot-com bubble of 1995--99 was followed by a
grand loosening of credit that resulted in a second bubble, the housing mania
of 2001--05. Still, when a bubble implodes there are always good
opportunities for folks who have the courage to take risks. The credit crisis has
been devastating to financial stocks. Banks, hedge funds and real estate
investment trusts have incurred at least 800 publicly revealed writedowns of
debt securities in the past year. Investors are running in fear from
securities backed by, or in any way related to, mortgages or high-yield bonds.
Both stocks and fixed-income securities have been knocked down to levels
that are cheap even with worst-case assumptions about future defaults."

In defense of scrooge
http://www.mises.org/fullstory.aspx?control=573
"It's Christmas again, time to celebrate the transformation of Ebenezer
Scrooge. You know the ritual: boo the curmudgeon initially encountered in
Charles Dickens's A Christmas Carol, then cheer the sweetie pie he becomes in
the end. It's too bad no one notices that the curmudgeon had a point -
quite a few points, in fact."

The code breaker
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/marketsmag/mm_0108_story1.html
"Simons, standing just under 5 feet 10 inches tall and weighing 185 pounds
(84 kilograms), has trod an unlikely path. A former code cracker for the
U.S. National Security Agency, in 1968 he became chairman of the
mathematics department at Stony Brook University, part of the New York state
university system. He built the department into what David Eisenbud, former
director of the Mathematical Sciences Research Institute in Berkeley,
California, calls one of the world's top centers for geometry. In 1977, frustrated
with a math problem and eager for change, he abandoned academia to start
what would become Renaissance, hiring professors, code breakers and
statistically minded scientists and engineers who'd worked in astrophysics,
language recognition theory and computer programming."

The subprime in the schoolhouse
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/marketsmag/mm_0108_story3.html
"Nobody knows how much more pain is coming. State funds could lose hundreds
of millions of dollars, says Lynn Turner, chief accountant of the U.S.
Securities and Exchange Commission from 1998 to 2001. "If you're dealing
with short-term money market funds, people expect those to have low risk and
not be invested in these SIVs and other very high-risk instruments,"
Turner says. If public funds lose money, towns and local agencies could raise
taxes, sell more debt or, more likely, trim budgets, Turner says. "Cutting
spending usually means people losing jobs because someone else didn't do
their job," he says."

Bill Miller Q3 2007
http://www.lmcm.com/pdf/miller_commentary/2007-11_miller_commentary.pdf
"Where will the new leadership come from? The same place it usually does:
the old laggards. I think the new leadership will be US, large-cap,
dollar-based, and grow to encompass what no one wants to own today, especially
financials and consumer. I also think so-called growth stocks will continue
to do fine. When growth becomes scarcer and the discount rate becomes
lower, growth becomes more valuable. More particularly, just as the right
thing to do in 2002 was to buy what everyone was panicked about, I think the
greatest gains over the next 5 years will be made in those securities
people are panicked about today. For specific names, consult the 52-week new
low list."

Luck, persistence, and what to do about it
http://www.leggmason.com/individualinvestors/documents/insights/D4071-Death_Taxes_and_Reversion_to_the_Mean.pdf
"Despite earnest and diligent study, analysts often produce company models
that are wildly off the mark, usually erring on the side of optimism. Even
analysts who consider ranges of value outcomes attach probabilities to
favorable scenarios that are too high. Some researchers attribute this
inaccuracy to overconfidence, but that is only part of the story. Another way
to understand the challenge is based on what renowned psychologist Daniel
Kahneman calls the inside-outside view. An inside view considers a problem
by focusing on the specific task and the information at hand, and predicts
based on that unique set of inputs. This is the approach analysts most
often use in their modeling, and indeed is common for all forms of planning.
In contrast, an outside view considers the problem as an instance in a
broader reference class. Rather than seeing the problem as unique, the
outside view asks if there are similar situations that can provide useful
calibration for modeling. Kahneman notes this is a very unnatural way to think
precisely because it forces analysts to set aside all of the cherished
information they have unearthed about a company. This is why people use the
outside view so rarely."


S&P/TSX60 Value Screens
http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy.shtml 

High Dividend Yield Stocks                     P/E P/B P/S P/C P/D Yield*
============================================== === === === === === ======
Biovail (BVF)                                   5   5   3   5   5    5
Bank of Montreal (BMO)                          4   5   4   3   5    5
National Bank of Canada (NA)                    3   5   4   4   5    5
CIBC (CM)                                       5   4   5   3   5    5
Royal Bank (RY)                                 4   3   3   2   5    5
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)                       4   3   2   2   5    5
BCE (BCE)                                       4   3   3   4   5    5
Telus (T)                                       3   4   3   4   5    5
TransCanada (TRP)                               2   3   2   3   5    5
Toronto Dominion Bank (TD)                      4   4   2   3   4    4
More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/dogs.shtml 

Value Ratio Stocks                             P/E P/B P/S P/C P/D  VR
============================================== === === === === === =====
Biovail (BVF)                                   5   5   3   5   5   0.5
CIBC (CM)                                       5   4   5   3   5   1.5
Teck Cominco Limited (TCK.B)                    5   4   4   5   4   2.4
Thomson (TOC)                                   5   3   2   3   3   2.5
Bank of Montreal (BMO)                          4   5   4   3   5   2.6
Royal Bank (RY)                                 4   3   3   2   5   2.9
National Bank of Canada (NA)                    3   5   4   4   5   3.0
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)                       4   3   2   2   5   3.3
BCE (BCE)                                       4   3   3   4   5   3.7
Toronto Dominion Bank (TD)                      4   4   2   3   4   3.8
More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/valueratio.shtml 

Graham Stocks                                  P/E P/B P/D   G$   dG$(%)
============================================== === === === ====== ======
MDS Inc. (MDS)                                  5   5   0   40.92 114.38
Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN)                 5   5   0   16.94  80.44
Biovail (BVF)                                   5   5   5   18.97  42.87
Magna Cl.A (MG.A)                               4   5   3   99.34  27.19
Thomson (TOC)                                   5   3   3   49.03  21.51
Teck Cominco Limited (TCK.B)                    5   4   4   41.86  18.56
CIBC (CM)                                       5   4   5   78.72  10.33
More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/graham.shtml 

*Notes: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/notes.shtml 

Switch to the HTML version if the tables aren't formatted properly.
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Books for Stingy Investors

Relative Dividend Yield
by Anthony E. Spare

Anthony Spare searches for value stocks using relative dividend
yield which is the ratio of a stock's dividend yield to the
average yield of the market. Spare's approach is to buy dividend
stocks near a peak in relative dividend yield and to sell them near
the lows. Although dividend-oriented investors will enjoy the
book, its cover price of $92.95 makes it a little dear. So, buy
the book at a sharp discount or borrow it from your local library.
Amazon Link: http://www.amazon.ca/exec/obidos/ASIN/0471327050/


Stock Research From Dan Hallett & Associates

The Rothery Report
http://www.rotheryreport.com/ 

The Rothery Report provides research on select deep-value stocks in
North America. Discover overlooked and undervalued stocks in quarterly
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Rothery Report Performance (03/31/2001 to 09/30/2007)
  Average Capital Gain    Average Holding Period
          53.4%                   2.5 Years

Learn More
http://www.rotheryreport.com/store/store.shtml

Subscribe Today
http://www.rotheryreport.com/store/order.shtml 



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ISSN 1499-2795 Copyright Dan Hallett and Associates Inc., 2007.
All rights reserved. The securities mentioned in this report are not
appropriate for all investors. Consult your professional investment
advisor before making any investment decision.  While all reasonable
effort is made to ensure the accuracy of information and data
contained herein, accuracy can not be guaranteed. Past performance is
not a good predictor of future performance.  Results are not
guaranteed and we assume no liability whatsoever for any material
losses that may occur.  No compensation for suggesting particular
securities or financial advisors is solicited or accepted.  The
information in this newsletter, and in its related website, is not
intended to be, nor does it constitute, financial advice or
recommendations.  Investing in stocks can be risky and may result in
substantial losses.  A Dan Hallett and Associates Inc.(DH&A)
publication.  DH&A is registered as Investment Counsel in the province
of Ontario. DH&A, or related-parties may have an interest in the
securities mentioned.