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 05/15   The Stingy News Weekly: May 15, 2022 
 05/15   Big selloffs are part of investing 
 05/15   The start of a real estate bust 
 05/14   Welcome back to 1994 
 05/14   Glamour momentum 
 05/14   Value spread still crazy 
 05/14   15 charts 
 05/08   The Stingy News Weekly: May 8, 2022 


Most Recent Stingy News

The Stingy News Weekly: May 15, 2022
05/15/22 7:50 PM ESTSNW
This week we have bears, real estate, bonds, the value spread, and more.
More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: May 8, 2022
The Stingy News Weekly: May 1, 2022

Big selloffs are part of investing
05/15/22 7:45 PM ESTMarkets
"Huge stock market sell-offs are normal. The S&P has historically seen an average annual drawdown of 14%. Some years see milder sell-offs. Other years see worse ones."
More Markets: Welcome back to 1994
15 charts

The start of a real estate bust
05/15/22 9:37 AM ESTReal Estate
"During the market peak, sellers were receiving so many offers they weren't even considering conditional ones. That pushed some buyers to make high, firm offers just ahead of the market softening. Now, as they near their closing date, appraisals are coming back tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars short, leaving people scrambling to pay the difference or risk losing their deposit - or worse."
More Real Estate: Housing and demographics
Why homeowners aren't selling

Welcome back to 1994
05/14/22 8:44 PM ESTMarkets
"At present I am pretty sure 30-year mortgage rates will rise to 6%, and maybe 7%. No one is panicking enough on this, so it will likely go higher. MBS hedging is a powerful force, and will continue until people no longer want to buy houses at such high interest rates."
More Markets: 15 charts
75/25 the new 60/40

Glamour momentum
05/14/22 8:37 PM ESTMomentum Investing
"we see that building a momentum portfolio solely on stocks trading above 10x P/S is a bad idea (not surprising). One would lose about 3.5% annually compared to the simple momentum portfolio."
More Momentum Investing: Momentum in emerging markets
What explains momentum?

Value spread still crazy
05/14/22 8:30 PM ESTValue Investing
Cliff updates his graph ...
More Value Investing: EM crisis investing
Using momentum to find value

15 charts
05/14/22 8:29 PM ESTMarkets
"Pundits spent a lot of time asking if Warren Buffett had lost his touch in 2020. It felt like the market had passed him by. As usual, Buffett just had to wait"
More Markets: 75/25 the new 60/40
Up in smoke

The Stingy News Weekly: May 8, 2022
05/08/22 7:30 PM ESTSNW
This week we have weed, inventory, bad bonds, and more.
More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: May 1, 2022
The Stingy News Weekly: April 17, 2022

75/25 the new 60/40
05/08/22 7:28 PM ESTMarkets
"His point about cash outperforming when bond returns go negative is certainly applicable in today's rising interest rate environment. Bernstein offered up a mix of 75% in stocks and 25% in cash equivalents as an alternative to the 60/40 stock-bond portfolio."
More Markets: Up in smoke
The great inventory build

EM crisis investing
05/08/22 4:11 PM ESTValue Investing
"The model works so well in large part because it dramatically shifts geographic exposures, as there's almost always an EM crisis happening somewhere."
More Value Investing: Using momentum to find value
Homeland securities

Using momentum to find value
05/08/22 3:28 PM ESTValue Investing
"The research demonstrates that using multiple measures of value and combining value and momentum in a strategy has produced superior results compared to using either the traditional HML value factor or the traditional momentum factor independently."
More Value Investing: Homeland securities
Size does not matter for value

Up in smoke
05/08/22 3:12 PM ESTMarkets
"The two characteristics of thematic investing are having a good story and attractive returns. No matter how sexy a theme is, the majority of investors only hop onto the train once it started moving uphill. Naturally, this makes thematic investing so dangerous as it appeals to our love for stories, and greed for making money. Stated differently, thematic investing is performance chasing with a narrative."
More Markets: The great inventory build
The scale versus the casino

The great inventory build
05/08/22 3:09 PM ESTMarkets
"With The Great Inventory Build in full swing, we believe we are getting closer to a point when rotating out of energy stocks and into beaten down consumer discretionary stocks will make sense."
More Markets: The scale versus the casino
This time wasn't different

Mayday from bonds
05/08/22 3:07 PM ESTBonds
"Year-to-date, long maturity Treasuries have declined in price by almost 20%. Because of their high interest rate duration, long maturity Treasuries have underperformed both investment grade bonds and high yield bonds."
More Bonds: Fed's plan to raise interest rates is wrong
AAA for Apple

The Stingy News Weekly: May 1, 2022
05/01/22 7:51 PM ESTSNW
This week we have the world of value, real estate, Buffett, and more.
More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: April 17, 2022
The Stingy News Weekly: April 10, 2022

Homeland securities
05/01/22 7:41 PM ESTValue Investing
"Reams of studies suggest that consistently holding the cheapest and most thinly traded stocks within a country's market provided investors with a healthy premium in the long haul. Purchasing pessimism (as reflected in low prices) pays off on long horizons. But does the same apply between countries?"
More Value Investing: Size does not matter for value
Generational dislocation in value stocks

The scale versus the casino
05/01/22 7:37 PM ESTMarkets
"In the short run, the market is a casino, but in the long run, it is a scale. Is this an improvement? Probably not, but speculation has become so rampant that it may be a necessary modification to change voting machine to casino."
More Markets: This time wasn't different
Sell in May and go away

This time wasn't different
05/01/22 7:34 PM ESTMarkets
"Arguably, the market is hitting the worst offenders because they deserve it. For instance, over 40% of all stocks had no earnings over the last 12 months. But what we haven't seen in at least 20 years is such a high number of stocks with no sales. 15% of all stocks reported no revenues over the last year! That's a smidge over 900 stocks with no sales!"
More Markets: Sell in May and go away
Confidence

Cement, concrete, and gravel
05/01/22 7:30 PM ESTStocks
"I have always found it interesting how some great watchlist companies can trade at very high valuations for long periods of time. In some cases, their valuations just get higher and higher, especially during bull markets."
More Stocks: A victory for shareholders
Hertz donut

Housing and demographics
05/01/22 7:28 PM ESTReal Estate
"The current demographics are now very favorable for home buying - and will remain somewhat positive for most of the decade, although most of the increase is now behind us."
More Real Estate: Why homeowners aren't selling
Talk about hot

Berkshire AGM
04/30/22 9:31 AM ESTBuffett
"Nicknamed 'Woodstock for Capitalists,' the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting is a gathering of the company's shareholders presided over by Chairman and CEO Warren Buffett and Vice Chairman Charlie Munger. The Omaha, Nebraska, event gives shareholders a chance to hear Buffett and Munger discuss investing, their economic outlook and life, as well as ask the legendary pair questions."
More Buffett: Warren Buffett getting the last laugh
What Buffett sees in Alleghany

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2016: Up 8.4%
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2007: Down 5.5%
2006: Up 28.9%
2005: Up 29.2%
2004: Up 29.8%
2003: Up 33.8%
2002: Down 1.9%

Top 200
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2021: New Picks (for subs)
2020: Down 15.4% (for subs)
2019: Up 5.9% (for subs)
2018: Down 14.5
2017: Up 13.5%
2016: Up 2.8%
2015: Up 2.1%
2014: Up 2.3%
2013: Up 55.0%
2012: Up 13.4%
2011: Down 4.2%
2010: Up 19.7%
2009: Up 41.0%
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2007: Up 16.2%
2006: Up 37.6%
2005: Up 57.6%

Defensive Graham Stocks
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2018: New Picks
2017: Up 12.8%
2016: Up 1.6%
2015: Up 2.2%
2014: Up 5.1%
2013: Up 19.0%
2012: Up 26.6%
2011: Up 4.1%
2010: Up 2.3%
2009: Up 2.2%
2008: Down 6.5%
2007: Up 34.4%
2006: Down 3.8%
2005: Up 46.6%
2004: Up 32.2%
2003: Up 56.8%
2002: Up 28.2%
2001: Up 20.2%

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