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Stingy Investor Tip Sheet

A Lost Decade, or Two

More than 75% of the stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average are now trading below prices first seen more than a decade ago. Almost 17% first hit today's closing price more than two decades ago.

The worst laggard remains General Motors (GM). My price database only goes back to 1962 and GM is well below that price. I suspect, based on recent reports, that you'd have to go back to the 1930s, or perhaps even earlier, to see similar prices.

Other members of the 20+ club are Bank of America (BAC) at 24.4 years, Citigroup (C) at 23.3 years, Alcoa (AA) at 21.8 years, and DuPont (DD) at 21.6 years.

The median Dow stock is back to where it was 12.6 years ago.

The table below presents the grim stats. The Earliest column shows the earliest month in which the stock hit its current price. The Years column shows the number of years that have elapsed since the date indicated in the Earliest column.

I also draw your attention to the 13 Dow stocks trading at a P/E ratio of less than 10.

Stock	Price  Earliest	Years  P/E  Yield  P/B	 P/S
=======	====== ======== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
GM	$2.00  Pre 1962	 50+      -     -     -  0.01
BAC	$3.93  Oct-1984	 24.4   7.1  0.8%  0.16  0.50
C	$2.51  Nov-1985	 23.3     -  1.3%  0.20  0.83
AA	$6.35  May-1987	 21.8     - 10.1%  0.44  0.19
DD	$20.88 Jul-1987	 21.6   9.5  7.7%  2.77  0.60
MRK	$28.53 Feb-1992	 17.1   7.8  5.3%  3.09  2.54
WMT	$50.45 Apr-1993	 15.9  14.6  2.0%  2.99  0.49
VZ	$27.99 Jun-1993	 15.7  12.4  6.5%  1.91  0.82
DIS	$17.69 Feb-1995	 14.1   8.4  2.0%  0.98  0.88
GE	$10.06 Jul-1995	 13.6   5.9 11.5%  1.05  0.60
T	$23.19 Jul-1995	 13.6  10.7  7.1%  1.40  1.09
JPM	$20.60 Aug-1995	 13.6  15.1  7.0%  0.60  1.74
AXP	$12.87 Sep-1995	 13.5   5.7  5.2%  1.36  0.72
BA	$37.57 Nov-1995	 13.3  10.3  4.4%     -  0.45
KO	$43.30 May-1996	 12.8  17.4  3.6%  4.82  3.09
INTC	$12.68 Oct-1996	 12.4  13.8  4.2%  1.90  1.98
PFE	$14.03 Oct-1996	 12.4  11.7  9.0%  1.42  1.98
MMM	$47.07 May-1997	 11.8   9.6  4.3%  3.31  1.29
HPQ	$31.39 Jul-1997	 11.6   9.7  0.9%  2.11  0.70
MSFT	$17.91 Jul-1997	 11.6   9.6  2.9%  4.67  2.60
CAT	$27.02 Aug-1997	 11.6   4.8  5.8%  2.81  0.33
HD	$20.16 Dec-1997	 11.2  11.4  4.5%  1.82  0.45
IBM	$88.93 Dec-1998	 10.2  10.0  2.2%  9.11  1.18
PG	$51.13 Apr-1999	  9.9  11.8  3.2%  2.45  1.76
KFT*	$24.33 Jun-2001	  7.7  12.7  4.7%  1.60  0.84
JNJ	$55.93 Aug-2001	  7.6  12.3  3.3%  3.39  2.43
UTX	$44.72 Dec-2003	  5.2   9.1  3.4%  2.66  0.72
CVX	$66.68 Jul-2006	  2.6   5.7  3.9%  1.54  0.51
XOM	$72.16 Oct-2006	  2.4   8.3  2.2%  2.92  0.75
MCD	$55.31 Sep-2007	  1.5  14.7  3.6%  4.82  2.67

                 Median  12.6  10.0  4.2%  2.01  0.83 

Source: Yahoo.com, MSN.com, Feb 19 ,2009.
*Kraft is below its IPO price.



02/19/2009   5:40 PM EST   Permlink   save & shareMarkets



 
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