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Select A Portfolio Classic Potato   with iShares ETFs   with eFunds Global Potato   with iShares ETFs   with eFunds Hot Potato   with iShares ETFs   with eFunds Balanced Potato   with iShares ETFs   with eFunds Safe Potato   with iShares ETFs   with eFunds	The Stingy Investor Asset Mixer   The calculator formerly known as the Upside/Downside Market View Portfolio by Asset Class Asset Class Start Year Alpha Weight 3 month T-bills 1961 % % +|- Short Canadian Bonds 1980 % % +|- Long Canadian Bonds 1970 % % +|- All Canadian Bonds 1961 % % +|- Real Return Bonds 1992 % % +|- TSX Composite 1961 % % +|- S&P500 1961 % % +|- Wilshire 5000 1975 % % +|- MSCI EAFE 1961 % % +|- MSCI Emerging Markets 1988 % % +|- Gold Bullion 1970 % % +|- Options: Annual Withdrawal Rate (%): Starting Portoflio Size ($): Year Range   Start: Stop: Set Global Alpha Assumption: None ETF Index Fund Average Fund Good Fund Bad Fund Zero Nominal Real pretax returns in Canadian dollars. Use Historic Random Historic returns. Results Overall Portfolio Stats (1961 to 2007) Average Gain (Geometric) 10.753% Average Gain (Arithmetic) 11.375% Median Annual Gain 13.400% Standard Deviation 11.663% Total Growth (%) 12056% Total Value of a $1000 Investment $121560.98 Total Down Years 9 years (19%) Total Years < 5.00% 13 years (28%) Total Years < 10.00% 17 years (36%) Total Time Span 47 years Worst Drops (1961 to 2007) Drop Starts Drop Recovery Time 1973 -22.25% 3 years 1974 -16.83% 1 year 2001 -16.82% 3 years 2002 -10.75% 1 year 1990 -8.30% 1 year The Portfolio's Worst Years (1961 to 2007) Year Portfolio Return 1974 -16.83% 2002 -10.75% 1990 -8.30% 2001 -6.80% 1973 -6.53% The Portfolio's Best Years (1961 to 2007) Year Portfolio Return 1985 37.87% 1986 27.17% 1993 25.83% 1961 25.72% 1975 24.90% Total Portfolio Return by Decade Start Year Stop Year Portfolio Return 1997 2007 113.67% 1987 1997 250.48% 1977 1987 482.53% 1967 1977 133.40% Return vs Volatility (1961 to 2007) Asset Alpha Arithmetic Avg Return Standard Deviation Portfolio 0.00% 11.37% 11.66% 3 month T-bills 0.00% 6.94% 3.82% Long Canadian Bonds 0.00% 8.84% 10.43% All Canadian Bonds 0.00% 8.33% 7.50% TSX Composite 0.00% 11.68% 15.51% S&P500 0.00% 11.89% 16.90% MSCI EAFE 0.00% 13.61% 20.68% Gold Bullion 0.00% 9.38% 26.79% Annual Chance of Asset Class Outperforming (1961 to 2007)* Asset Class 1 2* 3 4 5 6* 7* 8* 9 10* 11* [1] 3 month T-bills 0% 36% 36% 34% 34% 58% 30% 36% 25% 40% 31% [2] Long Cdn Bonds 79% 0% 61% 61% 55% 61% 61% 68% 64% 40% 62% [3] TSX Composite 64% 55% 0% 49% 55% 58% 48% 54% 57% 30% 56% [4] S&P500 66% 52% 51% 0% 43% 61% 36% 57% 50% 35% 50% [5] MSCI EAFE 66% 61% 43% 57% 0% 70% 55% 57% 50% 30% 44% [6] Gold Bullion 58% 55% 58% 55% 45% 0% 52% 32% 32% 35% 44% [7] Wilshire 5000 70% 55% 52% 64% 45% 64% 0% 61% 50% 35% 50% [8] Short Cdn Bonds 61% 32% 46% 39% 43% 68% 39% 0% 32% 45% 44% [9] All Cdn Bonds 75% 32% 43% 50% 50% 68% 46% 68% 0% 40% 56% [10] MSCI Emerging 60% 60% 70% 65% 70% 65% 65% 55% 60% 0% 56% [11] RRBs 69% 38% 44% 50% 56% 56% 50% 56% 44% 44% 0% * Year range truncated for some assets. Periodic Table of Annual Returns (2002 to 2007) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 +24.4% Gold +28.4% Emerg Mkt +17.5% RRBs +30.2% Emerg Mkt +32.9% Emerg Mkt +18.9% Emerg Mkt +15.3% RRBs +26.7% TSX +16.8% Emerg Mkt +24.1% TSX +27.1% EAFE +12.2% Gold +11.1% L.Bond +14.4% EAFE +14.5% TSX +15.2% RRBs +23.5% Gold +9.8% TSX +8.7% All Bond +13.4% Portfolio +11.9% EAFE +13.9% Gold +17.3% TSX +4.3% T-Bill +6.3% S.Bond +13.2% RRBs +10.3% L.Bond +13.8% L.Bond +16.1% Portfolio +4.1% S.Bond +2.5% T-Bill +9.1% L.Bond +9.1% Portfolio +10.6% Portfolio +16.1% Wilshire +3.7% All Bond -6.9% Emerg Mkt +8.2% Wilshire +7.1% All Bond +10.3% EAFE +16.0% S&P500 +3.4% L.Bond -10.8% Portfolio +6.7% All Bond +5.1% S.Bond +6.5% All Bond +4.1% L.Bond +1.6% RRBs -12.4% TSX +5.8% S&P500 +4.4% Wilshire +2.9% Wilshire +4.1% All Bond -0.4% Portfolio -16.5% EAFE +5.1% S.Bond +2.8% S&P500 +2.6% T-Bill +4.0% T-Bill -5.0% EAFE -21.6% Wilshire +2.9% T-Bill +2.3% T-Bill +2.4% S.Bond +4.0% S.Bond -10.1% Wilshire -22.8% S&P500 -1.5% Gold -3.0% Gold +1.5% S&P500 -2.9% RRBs -10.3% S&P500 Annual Portfolio Returns (1961 to 2007) Year Portfolio Return Growth of $1000.00 Withdrawal Amount 1961 25.72% $1257.25 $0.00 1962 -4.60% $1199.42 $0.00 1963 12.07% $1344.25 $0.00 1964 17.92% $1585.20 $0.00 1965 10.38% $1749.67 $0.00 1966 -4.43% $1672.24 $0.00 1967 13.42% $1896.74 $0.00 1968 17.38% $2226.30 $0.00 1969 2.37% $2279.18 $0.00 1970 0.12% $2282.03 $0.00 1971 15.18% $2628.32 $0.00 1972 21.07% $3182.24 $0.00 1973 -6.53% $2974.60 $0.00 1974 -16.83% $2474.12 $0.00 1975 24.90% $3090.18 $0.00 1976 13.07% $3494.22 $0.00 1977 11.70% $3903.05 $0.00 1978 22.95% $4798.80 $0.00 1979 17.15% $5621.79 $0.00 1980 24.85% $7018.80 $0.00 1981 -3.33% $6785.43 $0.00 1982 17.43% $7967.79 $0.00 1983 24.28% $9901.97 $0.00 1984 9.93% $10884.74 $0.00 1985 37.87% $15007.34 $0.00 1986 27.17% $19085.58 $0.00 1987 6.65% $20354.77 $0.00 1988 11.47% $22690.48 $0.00 1989 17.40% $26638.62 $0.00 1990 -8.30% $24427.62 $0.00 1991 19.00% $29068.87 $0.00 1992 5.95% $30798.46 $0.00 1993 25.83% $38752.17 $0.00 1994 4.40% $40457.26 $0.00 1995 19.40% $48305.97 $0.00 1996 17.78% $56892.36 $0.00 1997 17.58% $66891.19 $0.00 1998 18.60% $79332.95 $0.00 1999 16.07% $92085.72 $0.00 2000 0.35% $92408.02 $0.00 2001 -6.80% $86124.27 $0.00 2002 -10.75% $76865.91 $0.00 2003 13.40% $87165.95 $0.00 2004 9.08% $95076.26 $0.00 2005 10.60% $105154.34 $0.00 2006 16.12% $122110.48 $0.00 2007 -0.45% $121560.98 $0.00 Scenario Analysis Scenario Return 1929-32 US-style equity decline (down 89%) -66.75% 1906-07 US-style equity decline (down 49%) -36.75% 1973-74 US-style equity decline (down 45%) -33.75% 1987-87 US-style equity decline (down 36%) -27.00% 1923-24 German-style hyperinflation (bonds down 99.99%) -25.00% Share Your Asset Allocation If you've found a great asset allocation that you would like to share with you family, friends, or advisor then just copy the link below and email it to that special someone. Your Asset Allocation (Hint: Right click on the link to copy it.) A cautionary note This tool is much like a scalpel. In competent hands it is useful but the amateur may wind up cutting themselves. The amateur should seek professional advice. Sources Many thanks to Norbert Schlenker at Libra Investment Management for collecting the data that this calculator uses. Original public data sources include: Bank of Canada, BC Government Statistics, Canadian Institute of Actuaries, Economagic.com, Financial Post, Globe & Mail, globefund.com, Kitco, Libra Investment Management Inc., MSCI, Prof. Werner Antweiler (UBC), Scotia Capital, BMO, Standard & Poors, Statistics Canada (Table 326-0001) and Wilshire Associates.
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Disclaimers: Consult with a qualified investment advisor before trading. Past performance is a poor indicator of future performance. The information on this site, and in its related newsletters, is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, investment advice or recommendations. If you need personalized financial advice then please consider our private client services. The information on this site is in no way guaranteed for completeness, accuracy or in any other way. A Dan Hallett and Associates Inc. publication. Norm Rothery, Ph.D., CFA, is the Chief Investment Strategist at Dan Hallett and Associates Inc. (DH&A) and the founder of StingyInvestor.com. DH&A is registered as Investment Counsel in the province of Ontario. Norm, DH&A, or related-parties may have an interest in the securities mentioned. More...