Stingy Investor Contact - Subscribe - Login
  Home | Articles | Screens | Links | SNW | Rothery Report
Stingy News: Shiller

Beliefs don't predict
10/15/18 Behaviour Shiller
"The more we learn about how people really think, the more we must rethink economic theory."

Robert J. Shiller on behavioral economics
11/06/16 Behaviour Shiller
"it doesn't help to have a theory based on wrong assumptions"

Homes disappointing
07/17/16 Real Estate Shiller
"Buy land: They're not making it anymore. That often repeated adage sounds like good financial advice. But over the long run, it hasn't been. Despite solid price increases over the last few years, land and homes have actually been disappointing investments. It's worth considering why."

Phishing for phools
11/21/15 Books Behaviour Shiller
"Nobel Prize winner Robert J. Shiller visited Google's office in Cambridge, MA to discuss the book he co-authored with George Akerlof, 'Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception.'" [video]

Rising anxiety
08/30/15 Markets Shiller
"It is entirely plausible that the shaking of investor complacency in recent days will, despite intermittent rebounds, take the market down significantly and within a year or two restore CAPE ratios to historical averages."

The mystery of lofty stock market elevations
08/16/14 Markets Shiller
"I wrote with some concern about the high ratio in this space a little over a year ago, when it stood at around 23, far above its 20th-century average of 15.21. (CAPE stands for cyclically adjusted price-earnings.) Now it is above 25, a level that has been surpassed since 1881 in only three previous periods: the years clustered around 1929, 1999 and 2007. Major market drops followed those peaks."

Booming until it hurts?
07/18/14 Markets Shiller
"Those who warn of grave dangers if speculative price increases are allowed to continue unimpeded are right to do so, even if they cannot prove that there is any cause for concern. The warnings might help prevent the booms that we are now seeing from continuing much longer and becoming more dangerous."

U.S. stocks will be very disappointing
07/12/14 Markets Shiller
"'I can say with high confidence that investors are going to get very disappointing returns from U.S. stocks over the coming 10 years,' says Rob Arnott, chairman of Research Affiliates"

A CAPE Crusader
03/02/14 Value Investing Markets Montier Shiller
"Having spent a large proportion of my career prior to joining GMO working at investment banks, I'm well aware of what Andrew Smithers describes as 'Stock Broker Economics,' the second tenet of which is 'The market is always cheap.' Over the years I've witnessed many attempts by the practitioners of this most dark art to justify why tried and tested measures of valuation are no longer meaningful, or occasionally create new measures of valuation that purport to show the market to be cheap."

Why home prices change
04/14/13 Behaviour Real Estate Shiller
"In an ideal world, steady and uniform inflation would have no effect on rational decision-making because it affects incomes as well as prices. But in the real world, inflation does affect our psychology. People feel more optimistic when their nominal pay rises or when a neighbor's house sold for more than they paid for theirs. But in thinking about investments for the long term, we should focus on fundamentals - on real, inflation-corrected values and on the economics behind them."

Low P/Es are possible when interest rates are low
06/01/12 Markets Stingy Investing Shiller
"It is entirely possible for the market to trade at low ratios when rates are low. If anything the recent ratios have been high compared to past levels. If you just consider times when interest rates have dipped below 3 per cent, you'll find that Shiller's P/E has averaged 13.6. As a result, history provides even more meat for the bears because it bolsters their arguments that stocks are pricey."

The lost decade
01/02/10 Markets Shiller
"Mr. Shiller says our mass psychology is much more one of speculation and risk-taking than it was a generation or two ago. We've come to rely on rising markets to create our wealth and well-being, at the expense of savings. The result? An increasingly rapid succession of boom-and-bust markets."

Bob Shiller didn't kill the housing market
07/07/09 Real Estate Shiller
"Two years into the housing bust, Shiller finally sees some faint rays of sunshine (that's just light, not green shoots yet). When the June Case-Shiller figures were released, he said they showed "striking improvement in the rate of decline." Asked to look ahead, he says, "My guess is that prices will continue to fall for a while, but at a slower pace, and then stabilize. We've become very speculative in our attitude toward real estate, so there could be another boom. But if so, it likely won't happen for another five to 10 years.""

An interview with Robert Shiller
02/20/09 Shiller
"How do we explain the fluctuations of the business cycle, or the existence of involuntary unemployment? In answering these questions, Shiller and Akerlof turn to John Maynard Keynes's notion of the animal spirits: "the restless and inconsistent element in the economy" that is not easily explained by reference to rational actors with simple economic motivations."

Challenging the crowd in whispers
11/02/08 Real Estate Markets Shiller
"I clearly remember a taxi driver in Miami explaining to me years ago that the housing bubble there was getting crazy. With all the construction under way, which he pointed out as we drove along, he said that there would surely be a glut in the market and, eventually, a disaster. But why weren.t the experts at the Fed saying such things? And why didn.t a consensus of economists at universities and other institutions warn that a crisis was on the way?"

A psychology lesson from the markets
08/26/07 Shiller
"Many people feel that they have discovered their true inner genius as investors and have relished the new self-expression and excitement. Investors across the world have been thinking that they are winners - not recognizing that much of their success is only a result of a boom. Declines in asset prices endanger this very self-esteem. That is why it is so hard to turn around investor attitudes once a downward psychology sets in. The Fed and other central banks do not have lithium or Prozac in their bag of remedies, and so cannot control it."

The Stingy News Weekly

Article Archive

Submit a Story

  Growth Investing
  Real Estate
  Stingy Investing
  Value Investing

  Warren Buffett
  Benjamin Graham
  Charlie Munger
  David Dreman
  Martin Whitman
  Tweedy Browne
  James Montier
  John Dorfman
  Prem Watsa
  Francis Chou
  Walter Schloss
  Seth Klarman
  Nassim Taleb
  Robert Shiller
  James Grant
  John Bogle
  John Neff
  Bill Gross
  Dan Hallett
  Tim Cestnick
  Jason Zweig
  Norm Rothery

Article Archive

About Us | Legal | Contact Us
Disclaimers: Consult with a qualified investment adviser before trading. Past performance is a poor indicator of future performance. The information on this site, and in its related newsletters, is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, financial advice or recommendations. The information on this site is in no way guaranteed for completeness, accuracy or in any other way. More...