The Stingy News Weekly (12/11/2011)
| "Timidity prompted by past failures causes investors to miss the
most important bull markets." | |
| - Walter Schloss | |
Stingy Links
Bill Miller had a great run. But did his investors?
"The fund made 16.44% a year in gains and reinvested dividends
during that period, but the average investor made only 11.34%.
Miller's average investor actually underperformed the S&P (which
returned 11.51% annually during his streak), even though his fund
way outperformed the index. ... Interestingly, the presumably
non-starstruck investors in Vanguard's plain-vanilla S&P 500 index
fund (VFINX), which I also asked Morningstar to analyze, fell
into the same trap. During Miller's 15-year hot streak, the index
fund returned 11.41% -- but its average investor made only
7.96%."
The Long Shadow of German Hyperinflation
"The Germans' strict opposition to the monetary financing of
governments isn't just petty legalism -- it's a bedrock principle,
based in history, which was purposefully built into EU treaties
and Bundesbank policies. It's worth revisiting why the memory of
hyperinflation has seared itself into the minds of many Germans,
and how it's shaping their thinking and the future of the euro
itself."
Mandelbrot beats economics on markets
"Over the past 15 years or so, physicists have demonstrated this
in mathematical studies of market volatility. Inspired by work
of the mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot in the 1960s, these
scientists have used enormous sets of historical data -- hundreds of
millions of minute-by-minute prices stretching over more than a
decade, and daily and monthly prices over half a century -- to
show that large market movements, up or down, follow a single
mathematical pattern. Larger movements of, say, 10 percent to 15
percent, are less likely than movements of 3 percent to 5 percent.
And the probability of a movement decreases in simple inverse
proportion to the cube of its size: If moves of 5 percent or more
have a certain likelihood, then moves of 10 percent or more are
8 (2 cubed) times less likely, and moves of 20 percent or more
are in turn 8 times even less likely. But they still occur with
some regularity. This pattern, it turns out, can be seen in
markets for stocks, foreign exchange and futures around the world."
How doctors die
"Years ago, Charlie, a highly respected orthopedist and a mentor
of mine, found a lump in his stomach. He had a surgeon explore
the area, and the diagnosis was pancreatic cancer. This surgeon
was one of the best in the country. He had even invented a new
procedure for this exact cancer that could triple a patient’s
five-year-survival odds—from 5 percent to 15 percent—albeit with a
poor quality of life. Charlie was uninterested. He went home the
next day, closed his practice, and never set foot in a hospital
again. He focused on spending time with family and feeling as
good as possible. Several months later, he died at home. He got no
chemotherapy, radiation, or surgical treatment. Medicare didn’t
spend much on him. It’s not a frequent topic of discussion, but
doctors die, too. And they don’t die like the rest of us.
What’s unusual about them is not how much treatment they get compared
to most Americans, but how little. For all the time they spend
fending off the deaths of others, they tend to be fairly serene
when faced with death themselves. They know exactly what is
going to happen, they know the choices, and they generally have
access to any sort of medical care they could want. But they go
gently."
DOW 30 Value Screens
| High Dividend Yield Stocks | P/E | P/B | P/S | Yield | | AT&T (T) | 2 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| Verizon (VZ) | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Merck (MRK) | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| Pfizer (PFE) | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| General Electric (GE) | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| EI DuPont (DD) | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| Intel (INTC) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Procter & Gamble (PG) | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| Kraft (KFT) | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Notes | More Info... |
| Low Price/Earnings Stocks | P/E | P/B | P/S | Yield | | JP Morgan Chase (JPM) | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Chevron (CVX) | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 |
| Microsoft (MSFT) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| Exxon Mobil (XOM) | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Alcoa (AA) | 4 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
| Intel (INTC) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| EI DuPont (DD) | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| American Express (AXP) | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Wal-Mart (WMT) | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| Notes | More Info... |
| Value Ratio Stocks | P/E | P/B | P/S | Yield | V.R. | | JP Morgan Chase (JPM) | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2.44 |
| Chevron (CVX) | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2.49 |
| AT&T (T) | 2 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2.50 |
| Verizon (VZ) | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 2.97 |
| Microsoft (MSFT) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3.01 |
| Intel (INTC) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3.28 |
| General Electric (GE) | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3.58 |
| EI DuPont (DD) | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3.60 |
| Pfizer (PFE) | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3.66 |
| Exxon Mobil (XOM) | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4.27 |
| Notes | More Info... |
| US Stock Summary | Yield | P/E | V.R. | | EI DuPont (DD) | Y | Y | Y |
| Intel (INTC) | Y | Y | Y |
| AT&T (T) | Y | | Y |
| Chevron (CVX) | | Y | Y |
| Exxon Mobil (XOM) | | Y | Y |
| General Electric (GE) | Y | | Y |
| JP Morgan Chase (JPM) | | Y | Y |
| Microsoft (MSFT) | | Y | Y |
| Pfizer (PFE) | Y | | Y |
| Verizon (VZ) | Y | | Y |
| Alcoa (AA) | | Y | |
| American Express (AXP) | | Y | |
| Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) | | Y | |
| Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) | Y | | |
| Kraft (KFT) | Y | | |
| Merck (MRK) | Y | | |
| Procter & Gamble (PG) | Y | | |
| Wal-Mart (WMT) | | Y | |
| Notes... |
S&P/TSX60 Value Screens
| High Dividend Yield Stocks | P/E | P/B | P/S | Yield | | Enerplus (ERF) | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Sun Life Financial (SLF) | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Canadian Oil Sands (COS) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| Penn West Petroleum (PWT) | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
| TransAlta (TA) | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| BCE Inc. (BCE) | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| Power Corp of Canada (POW) | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| CIBC (CM) | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| Bank of Montreal (BMO) | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| Husky Energy (HSE) | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| Notes | More Info... |
| Low Price/Earnings Stocks | P/E | P/B | P/S | Yield | | Research In Motion (RIM) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Bombardier (BBD.B) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| Brookfield (BAM.A) | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Agrium (AGU) | 5 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| Canadian Oil Sands (COS) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| Iamgold (IMG) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Inmet Mining (IMN) | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Nexen (NXY) | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Teck Resources (TCK.B) | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Magna (MG) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| Notes | More Info... |
| Value Ratio Stocks | P/E | P/B | P/S | Yield | V.R. | | Enerplus (ERF) | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1.21 |
| Canadian Oil Sands (COS) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1.45 |
| Sun Life Financial (SLF) | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1.89 |
| CIBC (CM) | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1.97 |
| Power Corp of Canada (POW) | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2.05 |
| Bank of Montreal (BMO) | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2.17 |
| TransAlta (TA) | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2.23 |
| National Bank (NA) | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2.28 |
| Manulife (MFC) | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2.28 |
| Penn West Petroleum (PWT) | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2.38 |
| Notes | More Info... |
| Canadian Stock Summary | Yield | P/E | V.R. | | Canadian Oil Sands (COS) | Y | Y | Y |
| Bank of Montreal (BMO) | Y | | Y |
| CIBC (CM) | Y | | Y |
| Enerplus (ERF) | Y | | Y |
| Penn West Petroleum (PWT) | Y | | Y |
| Power Corp of Canada (POW) | Y | | Y |
| Sun Life Financial (SLF) | Y | | Y |
| TransAlta (TA) | Y | | Y |
| Agrium (AGU) | | Y | |
| BCE Inc. (BCE) | Y | | |
| Bombardier (BBD.B) | | Y | |
| Brookfield (BAM.A) | | Y | |
| Husky Energy (HSE) | Y | | |
| Iamgold (IMG) | | Y | |
| Inmet Mining (IMN) | | Y | |
| Magna (MG) | | Y | |
| Manulife (MFC) | | | Y |
| National Bank (NA) | | | Y |
| Nexen (NXY) | | Y | |
| Research In Motion (RIM) | | Y | |
| Teck Resources (TCK.B) | | Y | |
| Notes... |
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