| The Stingy News Weekly: January 24, 2020 |
| 01/24/20 | | SNW |
This week we have real data for the Asset Mixer, bubbles, bonds, couch potatoes, and more.
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| 50 years of industry data |
| 01/24/20 | | Markets |
"of the forty-eight industry portfolios considered on a value-weighted or market capitalization basis, only six boasted a higher Sharpe than the broad market: Smoke, Food, Beer, Guns, Drugs, and Utilities."
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| Down on the farm |
| 01/24/20 | | Fun |
"A stable of lesser known speculative manias including Japan's rabbit mania, poultry fever and the ostrich feather boom."
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| Dan McMurtrie talks to Tobias Carlisle |
| 01/24/20 | | Markets |
"Daniel McMurtrie, better known as FinTwit's @Supermugatu, runs a long/short hedge fund, a Bangladeshi venture fund and wrote the modern 95 Theses for millennial daters: The Dating Market" [video]
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| Bonds, bubbles, and biases |
| 01/24/20 | | Bonds |
"The single best predictor of future bond returns is their starting yield. The lower the starting yield, the lower the future returns."
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| Asset Mixer Update |
| 01/24/20 | | Stingy Investing |
We've updated our Asset Mixer to include real data for 2019.
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| Periodic Table Update |
| 01/24/20 | | Stingy Investing |
We've updated our periodic table of annual returns for Canadians to include real data for 2019.
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| Increasing risks of loan funds |
| 01/24/20 | | Hallett |
"The appeal of bank loans as investments is two-fold: i) they offer mid-to-high single-digit yields (because borrowers are higher risk); and ii) they typically bear a floating interest rate so they.re immune to often-feared higher rates. But bank loans differ from high yield bonds in important ways."
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| 2020 Couch Potato Model Portfolios |
| 01/24/20 | | Indexing |
"ETFs still aren't right for everyone, but the launch of 'one-fund portfolios' (also called asset allocation ETFs), combined with the low- and no-commission trades at several brokerages, have made them more appropriate even for small portfolios. For the vast majority of DIY investors, I believe these one-ticket solutions are the best way to build a diversified portfolio that balances low cost with ease of maintenance."
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| The Stingy News Weekly: January 17, 2020 |
| 01/17/20 | | SNW |
This week we have value, predictions, allocations, and more.
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| Age-invariant asset allocation |
| 01/17/20 | | Retirement |
"In the present environment, the stock market is poised to deliver 2.52%/year over the next ten years. You can do better with an investment-grade portfolio of bonds."
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| Value's death exaggerated |
| 01/17/20 | | Value Investing |
"Over the last 12 years, the relative valuation of value and growth moved from the 21st percentile to the 97th percentile. This revaluation explains most of value's underperformance. Today, the relative valuation level is close to the most attractive valuation level in history at the peak of the tech bubble in 2000."
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| VAH: Akre |
| 01/17/20 | | Value Investing |
"S02 E02 Akre Never Sells, What Buffett Should Buy and Damodaran's Market Delusion" [video]
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| An inevitable market downturn |
| 01/17/20 | | Stingy Investing |
"There were 138 separate downturns in the S&P 500's inflation-adjusted record, based on Prof. Shiller's data. About 36 per cent of them lasted for one month and 67 per cent of them lasted for three months or less before the market moved up to new highs." [$]
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| O'Shaughnessy Q4 2019 letter |
| 01/17/20 | | Value Investing |
"our updated in-house 10-year point estimate for the U.S. market's nominal total return fell during the year, and now sits at ~1.5% annualized, which would mean a ~16% total return over the next decade."
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| The Stingy News Weekly: January 10, 2020 |
| 01/10/20 | | SNW |
This week we have rebalancing, value, not selling, and more.
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| Rebalancing frequency |
| 01/10/20 | | Markets |
"My prior with most market-based analyses is that the patterns we observe are just noise and randomness. Given the conclusions found from those who have studied rebalancing previously, I am inclined to believe that this is true in this case as well."
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| Value's underperformance |
| 01/10/20 | | Value Investing |
"Critics of value investing have declared the death of value. However, the empirical analysis suggests it is unlikely because the size of the current drawdown, while painful, is not an outlier, and the pre- and post-2007 data suggest there have been no statistically significant changes in the two drivers of the value premium - migration and profitability. The simple explanation for value's underperformance is the relative increase in the valuations of growth stocks."
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| The art of not selling |
| 01/10/20 | | Markets |
"Of our most costly mistakes over the years, almost all have been sell decisions. The mistake, in virtually every instance, has been selling too soon."
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| The Stingy News Weekly: January 3, 2020 |
| 01/03/20 | | SNW |
This week we have updates to the Asset Mixer and Periodic Table for Canadians, dividends, declines, optimism, and more.
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| How things go viral |
| 01/03/20 | | Media |
"Derek Thompson stops by The Compound to discuss how and why things go viral with Barry and Michael. Derek is a staff writer at The Atlantic and author of 'Hit Makers.'" [video]
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| What a time to be alive |
| 01/03/20 | | World |
"The difference between an optimist and a pessimist isn't usually over substance. It's the time frame they're looking at. Problems are easier to spot today, but progress is almost always more powerful over time."
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| The long suffering |
| 01/03/20 | | Markets |
"We know that stocks are risk assets, and that U.S. government bonds, specifically one-month T-Bills, are often referred to as risk-free assets. But the absence of risk can be very costly if your goal is to outpace inflation, which is why we take risk in the first place. Looking at this chart, one should conclude that risk-free is not only reward-free, but its the epitome of risk."
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| The power of reinvesting dividends |
| 01/03/20 | | Stingy Investing |
"The relative gains highlight the potential benefits of dividend reinvestment. The boost is so compelling that most investors like to use total returns rather than capital gains when studying the market." [$]
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| Asset Mixer Update |
| 01/03/20 | | Stingy Investing |
We've updated our Asset Mixer to include nominal data for 2019.
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| Periodic Table Update |
| 01/03/20 | | Stingy Investing |
We've updated our periodic table of annual returns for Canadians to include nominal data for 2019.
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