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 02/13   The Stingy News Weekly: February 13, 2019 
 02/13   Retiring on low income 
 02/13   The world is shrinking 
 02/13   DCA vs buy the dip 
 02/12   Where big leaps live 
 02/12   Paul Volcker talks to Ray Dalio 
 02/12   Sovereign bonds since Waterloo 


Most Recent Stingy News

The Stingy News Weekly: February 13, 2019
02/13/19 7:15 PM ESTSNW
This week we have timing, retirement, in a shrinking world, and more.
More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: February 5, 2019
The Stingy News Weekly: January 28, 2019

Retiring on low income
02/13/19 7:07 PM ESTRetirement
"Retirement savings advice doesn't always work for everyone, especially those living on low incomes. The Agenda discusses the reality of retirement for Ontario's low-income earners." [video]
More Retirement: The retirement age is too low
Conventional retirement advice may fail

The world is shrinking
02/13/19 7:01 PM ESTWorld
"Dire predictions about an impending overpopulation crisis have loomed large in the human imagination for centuries. Darrel Bricker and John Ibbitson co-authors of, 'Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline,' say these predictions have been greatly exaggerated. In fact, the global population is on the decline." [video]
More World: Venezuela is a socialist catastrophe
What I learned at work this year

DCA vs buy the dip
02/13/19 5:04 PM ESTMarkets
"My point in all of this is that Buy the Dip, even with perfect information, typically underperforms DCA. So if you attempt to build up cash and buy at the next bottom, you will likely be worse off than if you had bought every month. Why? Because while you wait for the next dip, the market is likely to keep rising and leave you behind."
More Markets: An economic story
Is risk a function of sector or size?

Where big leaps live
02/12/19 10:28 PM ESTBehaviour
"Few talented people get all their value from being great at one thing. Being so good at one thing that it's enough to make you extraordinary is rare. More likely are people who are pretty good at a few things and combine those things to make a big leap into something great."
More Behaviour: Time for happiness
Morgan Housel talk

Paul Volcker talks to Ray Dalio
02/12/19 9:56 PM ESTGovernment
"I sat down with one of my greatest heroes, Paul Volcker, to talk about the state of the economy and U.S. government as well as learn about the principles that guided his incredible career." [video]
More Government: Manulife bailout
Rent control needs retirement

Sovereign bonds since Waterloo
02/12/19 9:40 PM ESTBonds
"This paper studies external sovereign bonds as an asset class. We compile a new database of 220,000 monthly prices of foreign-currency government bonds traded in London and New York between 1815 (the Battle of Waterloo) and 2016, covering 91 countries. Our main insight is that, as in equity markets, the returns on external sovereign bonds have been sufficiently high to compensate for risk. Real ex-post returns averaged 7% annually across two centuries, including default episodes, major wars, and global crises. This represents an excess return of around 4% above US or UK government bonds, which is comparable to stocks and outperforms corporate bonds. The observed returns are hard to reconcile with canonical theoretical models and with the degree of credit risk in this market, as measured by historical default and recovery rates. Based on our archive of more than 300 sovereign debt restructurings since 1815, we show that full repudiation is rare; the median haircut is below 50%."
More Bonds: A bad bond idea
Canada's most boring investment ever

Trying to time the market
02/12/19 9:37 PM ESTStingy Investing
"Trying to time the market might be tempting but it's failure-prone. Most investors should focus on the fundamentals instead." [$]
More Stingy Investing: Solace for those retiring at a peak
Buffett's wide-moat theory works

Broken beta
02/12/19 9:31 PM ESTIndexing
"Smart beta will disappoint some investors, but that's as much their fault as the product providers. Investors do not appreciate the significant tracking errors relative to their benchmarks. This has led ETF issuers to create index products with only slight factor tilts. Given the higher price tag of smart beta ETFs compared to plain-vanilla equity ETFs, they are probably not worth the higher fees."
More Indexing: Rebalancing for ETFs
John Bogle dies at 89

Looking for the intuition
02/12/19 9:24 PM ESTValue Investing
"After a very tough 2018 for many quantitative strategies, particularly in market-neutral stock selection, one hurdle many investors face is getting some basic intuition about results, and even more elementary, about what one actually owns in such a portfolio. This matters as the more intuitive something is the easier it is, all else equal, to stick with it. I can't fully fix this problem. A multi-factor process, by design, lacks simple one-liner explanations. Frankly, that's much of the idea of diversifying across factors and stocks. But, while I can't fix this completely, I do hope I can help."
More Value Investing: Where is the Value
Bob Robotti's blog

The Stingy News Weekly: February 5, 2019
02/05/19 9:15 PM ESTSNW
This week we have rebalancing, retirement, happiness, and more.
More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: January 28, 2019
The Stingy News Weekly: January 22, 2019

Time for happiness
02/05/19 9:11 PM ESTBehaviour
"most of us fall into a trap of spending time to get money, because we believe money will make us happier in the long run. Our thinking is backward. In fact, research consistently shows that the happiest people use their money to buy time."
More Behaviour: Morgan Housel talk
Time to do something

One big thing
02/05/19 8:29 PM ESTThrift
"74% of retirement success had to do with one thing: savings rate. The other 26% was explained by asset allocation and related decisions."
More Thrift: Cost of living
We're stuffed

An economic story
02/05/19 8:13 PM ESTMarkets
"The Great Depression experienced a GDP decline of nearly 27% with a high unemployment rate of 25%. The downturn technically ended in 1932. In that year, wages fell 60% while stock market dividends were slashed 57%."
More Markets: Is risk a function of sector or size?
Retail arbitrage

Where is the Value
02/05/19 7:49 PM ESTValue Investing
"The countries noted above as being deeply discounted relative to peers and history are also showing up as having favorable Earnings Growth relative to peers - Portugal, Greece, and Russia."
More Value Investing: Bob Robotti's blog
Battle for Stuart Olson

Rebalancing for ETFs
02/05/19 7:43 PM ESTIndexing
"Rebalancing spreadsheets are not new, but this one has an additional feature I hope you will find useful: it allows you to incorporate ETFs that hold more than one asset class."
More Indexing: John Bogle dies at 89
Bogle sounds a warning on index funds

The retirement age is too low
02/05/19 7:39 PM ESTRetirement
"When the Canada Pension Plan came into effect in 1965, life expectancy was just shy of 72 years. Canadians could thus expect six or seven years of public pension benefits before moving on to their greater reward. Since that time, however, tremendous improvements in health care and geriatric medicine have pushed life expectancy to 82 while the traditional retirement remains stuck at 65, creating an extra decade of leisure."
More Retirement: Conventional retirement advice may fail
Retirement finance

The Stingy News Weekly: January 28, 2019
01/28/19 9:48 PM ESTSNW
This week we have solace for retirees, fake goose, tax, and more.
More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: January 22, 2019
The Stingy News Weekly: January 16, 2019

Morgan Housel talk
01/28/19 9:37 PM ESTBehaviour
"Morgan Housel's presentation on What Other Industries Teach Us About Investing" [video]
More Behaviour: Time to do something
Popularity

Is risk a function of sector or size?
01/28/19 9:26 PM ESTMarkets
"It would appear that the realized risk and returns in these were largely functions of their sector characteristics as opposed to size."
More Markets: Retail arbitrage
Is risk a function of sector or size?

A fake goose
01/28/19 9:12 PM ESTFraud
"When the coat arrived, it was army green instead of the forest green I had ordered. It was heavy, not lightweight. It didn't fit. It smelled of chemicals. And the white Canada Goose patch? It looked off; it's the patch on the right at the top of this article. On Canada Goose's website, a page dedicated to the dangers of counterfeiting explains that every one of its products has a hologram label with a polar-bear image, proof of authenticity. With a $925 pit in my stomach, I checked my coat. It had a hologram sewn into the seam but, sure enough, no polar bear."

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