Most Recent Stingy News
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| The Stingy News Weekly: December 20, 2020 |
| 12/20/20 1:30 PM EST | SNW |
| This week we have fixing, Charlie, selling, generation, Tesla, and more. |
| More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: December 13, 2020 |
| The Stingy News Weekly: December 6, 2020 |
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| A generational moment |
| 12/20/20 1:27 PM EST | Markets |
| "While we can't predict the future, based on price and valuation, we are fairly certain young investors are not being presented with a generational buying moment. More likely, we believe investors are being offered a generational selling moment" |
| More Markets: The Tesla bubble |
| FATMAN-G |
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| The Tesla bubble |
| 12/19/20 7:17 PM EST | Markets |
| "Tesla is entering the S&P 500 with a stupendously high valuation and will likely be ranked sixth in the index. Traditional cap-weighted indices, such as the S&P 500, are structured to buy high and sell low - and Tesla is a prime example of this maxim." |
| More Markets: FATMAN-G |
| Estimating future stock returns |
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| FATMAN-G |
| 12/19/20 6:52 PM EST | Markets |
| "And for each of them in aggregate to generate 15% annual returns over the next fifteen years, they would need a combined market cap of over $70 trillion. Not that it is a valid comparison, but in 2035, that will be greater than the combined GDPs of the US and Europe." |
| More Markets: Estimating future stock returns |
| The McRib effect |
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| Tiny titans strategy |
| 12/19/20 6:46 PM EST | Value Investing |
| "O'Shaughnessy Tiny Titans screen looks for the 25 companies with the highest price strength over the last year after applying the market cap and value filters" |
| More Value Investing: Q3 2020 GMO letter |
| Tobias Carlisle interview |
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| Charlie Munger interview |
| 12/19/20 6:41 PM EST | Munger |
| "Charlie Munger appeared for the first time since January on a public interview with Caltech faculty." [video] |
| More Munger: Charlie Munger talks |
| Charlie Munger talks |
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| Selling in January |
| 12/19/20 6:38 PM EST | Stingy Investing |
| "This year's winners now face a dilemma. The lucky Scrooges with piles of capital gains fuelled by the manic market might want to lighten up on their high flyers before the eggnog runs out. But taxes can make the timing tricky. They can sell now and pay taxes this year, or wait and defer their taxes into the new year." [$] |
| More Stingy Investing: Reversal stocks |
| Don't count out value |
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| Simple fix for those facing CERB repayments |
| 12/19/20 6:36 PM EST | Taxes |
| "Self-employed CERB recipients who have filed their 2019 taxes should be able to easily amend their return by filing a T1-ADJ form on which they can reduce the expenses they claimed so that their net income rises above the $5,000 eligibility threshold, Rotfleisch says." |
| More Taxes: Relief for RDSP holders |
| A work-from-home tax |
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| The Stingy News Weekly: December 13, 2020 |
| 12/12/20 6:39 PM EST | SNW |
| This week we have bargain value, CPP, future returns, deep value, and more. |
| More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: December 6, 2020 |
| The Stingy News Weekly: November 27, 2020 |
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| Q3 2020 GMO letter |
| 12/12/20 11:32 PM EST | Value Investing |
| "No matter how we define cheap stocks - whether on book, or free cashflow, or forward earnings - they look attractive relative to history. Ten of the eleven definitions of Value presented are cheaper than they've been in at least 90% of months since 1971" |
| More Value Investing: Tobias Carlisle interview |
| Horses for courses |
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| The imposter |
| 12/12/20 9:53 PM EST | Crime |
| "Shaun MacDonald was an ambitious tech innovator whose start-up was going to revolutionize the crypto economy. His wealthy investors had no idea that their charismatic founder was really Boaz Manor, a notorious Canadian white-collar criminal. It was only a matter of time before they discovered the truth" |
| More Crime: Playing dirty |
| The wildest insurance fraud scheme |
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| Tobias Carlisle interview |
| 12/12/20 9:23 PM EST | Value Investing |
| "Tobias Carlisle is a well known author. He's written extensively about value investing. In our view, Deep Value is one of the best investment books ever written." |
| More Value Investing: Horses for courses |
| Value waves the white flag |
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| Estimating future stock returns |
| 12/12/20 9:20 PM EST | Markets |
| "Welcome to Wonderland, boys and girls. At the end of the third quarter, the S&P 500 was priced to return 2.92%/yr for the next ten years, with no adjustment for inflation. You might say, 'But David, you've reported levels that low in the past, and you were concerned, but you never said 'Wonderland.' True, but the market has rallied further since the end of the quarter, and the level of the S&P 500 now is priced to return 1.79%/yr for the next ten years, with no adjustment for inflation. That's in the 97th percentile of valuations." |
| More Markets: The McRib effect |
| The Q ratio |
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| CPP at 60 |
| 12/12/20 9:18 PM EST | Retirement |
| "The average Canadian who takes Canada Pension Plan benefits at age 60 rather than 70 can expect to lose more than $100,000 of income over the course of their retirement" |
| More Retirement: CPP timing |
| Boring |
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| CPP timing |
| 12/12/20 9:17 PM EST | Retirement |
| "The 'standard' age to take CPP is 65. If you take it early, your benefits are reduced by 0.6% for each month early. This is a 36% reduction if you take CPP at 60. If you wait past 65, your benefits increase by 0.7% for each month you wait. This is a 42% increase if you wait until you're 70." |
| More Retirement: Boring |
| Delaying CPP |
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| The Stingy News Weekly: December 6, 2020 |
| 12/06/20 12:09 PM EST | SNW |
| This week we have honesty, McRibs, optimists, reversals, and more. |
| More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: November 27, 2020 |
| The Stingy News Weekly: November 22, 2020 |
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| The reasonable optimist |
| 12/06/20 12:06 PM EST | Behaviour |
| "The ease of underestimating how bad things can be in the short run and how good they can be in the longer run is a leading cause of bad forecasts, bad decisions, and confused people. It's common because it's easier to go all in on either optimism or pessimism - having one foot on each side feels waffling. But straddling both sides is usually the best stance." |
| More Behaviour: Value |
| Enough |
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| The McRib effect |
| 12/05/20 8:49 PM EST | Markets |
| "When the McRib is available, the S&P 500 has an average daily return about 7 basis points (0.07%) higher than on days when it is not available. To put that into perspective, when annualized, that difference would be 19% every year." |
| More Markets: The Q ratio |
| Canadian bills lose legal tender status |
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| Civic honesty around the globe |
| 12/05/20 8:41 PM EST | :Behaviour |
| "Civic honesty is essential to social capital and economic development but is often in conflict with material self-interest. We examine the trade-off between honesty and self-interest using field experiments in 355 cities spanning 40 countries around the globe. In these experiments, we turned in more than 17,000 lost wallets containing varying amounts of money at public and private institutions and measured whether recipients contacted the owners to return the wallets. In virtually all countries, citizens were more likely to return wallets that contained more money. Neither nonexperts nor professional economists were able to predict this result. Additional data suggest that our main findings can be explained by a combination of altruistic concerns and an aversion to viewing oneself as a thief, both of which increase with the material benefits of dishonesty." |
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| Reversal stocks |
| 12/05/20 8:37 PM EST | Stingy Investing |
| "Pickings are slim in the bargain bin after the recent runup. Only 24 stocks in the S&P/TSX Composite Index suffered from declines of more than 25 per cent since the start of 2020 through to Nov. 30, while the other 198 stocks fared better with 122 of them gaining ground." [$] |
| More Stingy Investing: Don't count out value |
| There and back again |
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| Beyond yield |
| 12/05/20 8:36 PM EST | Bonds |
| "Credit ratings are to fixed income what valuation multiples are to equities. Most credit analysts focus on yield and duration while most equity analysts focus on growth and discount rates, but in our view, the true drivers of return are changes in rating for bonds and changes in multiple for equities." |
| More Bonds: Game over |
| Financial leverage risk |
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