Most Recent Stingy News
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| The Stingy News Weekly: September 19, 2020 |
| 09/19/20 1:59 PM EST | SNW |
| This week we have momentum, small stocks, the value island, volatility, and more. |
| More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: September 11, 2020 |
| The Stingy News Weekly: September 6, 2020 |
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| Hitting return targets |
| 09/19/20 1:57 PM EST | Markets |
| "For many decades the expected rate of return was close to that of prevailing interest rates so not only was it a simpler time to be an allocator, but an easier time. That relationship has broken down in recent decades." |
| More Markets: Persistent high volatility |
| There is no size effect |
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| Persistent high volatility |
| 09/19/20 1:51 PM EST | Markets |
| "A situation has been set up by the functional equivalent of the 'Wizard of Oz' where small changes to interest rates or economic activity will have big impact on stock prices. And so I am telling you, be ready for whippy markets." |
| More Markets: There is no size effect |
| Settling the size matter |
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| CROIC, CFROI, CROCI, and CROCS |
| 09/19/20 1:50 PM EST | Value Investing |
| "Running a Value fund is somewhat like being stranded on a tiny tropical island out in the ocean. You can't really run away and are exposed to the harsh forces of nature. If you're lucky, there might be a coconut tree or big rock providing some shade. But it will still be hot most of the day, regardless of where you're sitting, and often you have to watch out for falling coconuts." |
| More Value Investing: The value premium in Canadian stocks |
| 2 decades of value with Chris Mittleman |
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| There is no size effect |
| 09/18/20 9:55 PM EST | Markets |
| "Adding in lags to account for illiquidity takes the historically weak small firm effect and renders it non-existent." |
| More Markets: Settling the size matter |
| The 60/40 Portfolio |
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| The billionaire who wanted to die broke |
| 09/18/20 9:37 PM EST | Charity |
| "It took decades, but Chuck Feeney, the former billionaire cofounder of retail giant Duty Free Shoppers has finally given all his money away to charity. He has nothing left now - and he couldn't be happier." |
| More Charity: Secretary donates $8.2 Million |
| The best ways to give to charity |
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| Accruals and momentum |
| 09/18/20 9:31 PM EST | Momentum |
| "Summarizing, the evidence demonstrates that investors have been well served to either short or avoid (for long-only investors) high accruals momentum firms." |
| More Momentum: Market timing with multiples |
| Momentum and reversals can coexist |
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| Why Buffett bought Japanese stocks |
| 09/18/20 9:25 PM EST | Buffett |
| "Japan is one of the few value investments available in today's global developed markets. Large caps in the United States have gotten dramatically more expensive compared to Japan in the last 10 years." |
| More Buffett: When Buffett was a quant |
| Berkshire Hathaway AGM |
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| The Stingy News Weekly: September 11, 2020 |
| 09/11/20 9:53 PM EST | SNW |
| This week we have failing bonds, the 60/40 downer, seasons, dividends, crowding, and more. |
| More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: September 6, 2020 |
| The Stingy News Weekly: August 30, 2020 |
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| Government bonds are duds |
| 09/11/20 8:57 PM EST | Bonds |
| "But while the income side of the equation for bonds was clearly not what it once was, until very recently we have continued to assume that bonds could accomplish their other important task, providing capital gains in the event of an economic disaster. This winter, U.S. Treasuries once again did their hedging job admirably, providing substantial positive returns when riskier assets fell in the early stages of the Covid-19 crisis. But that success has come at a cost. At today's yields, U.S. Treasuries not only fail to provide a useful amount of yield to investors but also have likely lost their ability to hedge in the event of further economic trouble." |
| More Bonds: Moar Income |
| Surge in defaults |
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| Settling the size matter |
| 09/11/20 8:50 PM EST | Markets |
| "We conclude that size is weak as a stand-alone factor but a powerful catalyst for other factors." |
| More Markets: The 60/40 Portfolio |
| Drawdowns in wonderful companies |
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| The 60/40 Portfolio |
| 09/11/20 8:40 PM EST | Markets |
| "The 10 year treasury yielded 2.2% at the outset of 1940. By the start of 1980 it was up to 10.8%. Today it's roughly 0.7%. The 60/40 portfolio will assuredly have lower returns over the next 40 years than it had over the last 40 years. That's simple math based on starting yields for bonds." |
| More Markets: Drawdowns in wonderful companies |
| Crowding in large tech |
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| Drawdowns in wonderful companies |
| 09/11/20 8:23 PM EST | Markets |
| "Investors in the greatest companies faced a drawdown of 32.5%, on average, despite being one of the greatest decades of performance ever. That was just the largest drawdown, on average. It says nothing of the second, third, and so on drawdowns during the same decade." |
| More Markets: Crowding in large tech |
| Seasonal patterns in the Canadian market |
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| Crowding in large tech |
| 09/11/20 7:59 PM EST | Markets |
| "I say to you 'lighten up on your large cap tech positions.' Those who own those positions have short time horizons, and may bolt. There is no way these companies grow into their valuations, so don't think you can hold on for years. This is just a mania, and as such, it will meet its end." |
| More Markets: Seasonal patterns in the Canadian market |
| The new normal |
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| Dividend investing success |
| 09/11/20 7:32 PM EST | Stingy Investing |
| "The U.S. market generated annual gains of 11.4 per cent versus 10.2 per cent gains in Canada. It was a good period for stocks. Similarly, the high-yield portfolios outpaced the markets in both countries. The Canadian high-yield portfolio fared particularly well with gains of 14.1 per cent versus 12.4 per cent in the United States." [$] |
| More Stingy Investing: Falling dividend yields |
| A nearly two century winning streak |
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| Seasonal patterns in the Canadian market |
| 09/11/20 7:29 PM EST | Markets |
| "There is a January effect in Canada and, more importantly for this time of the year, a 'sell in May and go away' effect. In fact, the average annual rate of return over the last 60 years (1957-2018) would have been 17% had investors gone long in the equally weighted index in November-April and gotten out of risky securities altogether in the May-October semi-annual period and, over that period, invested instead heavily (and exclusively) in government of Canada bonds. It would have been 18% in the 1988-2018 sub-period." |
| More Markets: The new normal |
| The game of Tesla |
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| Pleasures of sex and berries |
| 09/11/20 7:28 PM EST | Science |
| "Our ancestors have spent a few hundred years in cities at most. Before that, they spent a million years or more on what was essentially a perpetual camping trip, most of it in Africa. Little wonder then that people are more easily scared of snakes than cars, of deep water than speed, of spiders than guns. We are, to a significant extent, adapted to the environment we evolved in, rather than the one most of us now inhabit." |
| More Science: The bus ticket theory of genius |
| Age vs success |
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| The Stingy News Weekly: September 6, 2020 |
| 09/06/20 8:52 PM EST | SNW |
| This week we have Tesla, low returns, saving, indexing, and more. |
| More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: August 30, 2020 |
| The Stingy News Weekly: August 22, 2020 |
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| The new normal |
| 09/06/20 8:26 PM EST | Markets |
| "I think the days of a simple 60/40 allocation or even something fancier like the All Weather Portfolio generating meaningful real returns are probably behind us for at least the next decade." |
| More Markets: The game of Tesla |
| Only a trickle |
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| The game of Tesla |
| 09/06/20 7:58 PM EST | Markets |
| "This is the Common Knowledge Game in action. It is the power of the crowd watching the crowd. It is the power of - not what you think is true, and not what you think the crowd thinks is true - but of what the crowd thinks the crowd thinks is true." |
| More Markets: Only a trickle |
| Distorting the prices of small-cap stocks |
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| Only a trickle |
| 09/06/20 7:20 PM EST | Markets |
| "The S&P 500 model is forecasting returns of 2.23%/year over the next 10 years. Even if you compare that to the 10-year Treasury Note yielding 0.66%, that's not enough of a risk premium. We are in the 97th percentile of valuations." |
| More Markets: Distorting the prices of small-cap stocks |
| Long-term reversal in equity returns |
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