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 09/24   The Stingy News Weekly: September 24, 2023 
 09/24   Long and short of it 
 09/24   Downside of short selling 
 09/24   We'll have a good time then 
 09/24   What Works in Banking 
 09/24   Two per cent real yields 
 09/24   Morgan Housel's portfolio 
 09/17   The Stingy News Weekly: September 17, 2023 


Most Recent Stingy News

The Stingy News Weekly: September 24, 2023
09/24/23 7:35 PM ESTSNW
This week we have bonds, banks, bubbles, and more.
More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: September 17, 2023
The Stingy News Weekly: September 10, 2023

Long and short of it
09/24/23 7:33 PM ESTBonds
"I would lean heavily on short-term bonds. Since interest rates are unpredictable, I see that as the best route to preserving value."
More Bonds: Two per cent real yields
The smart debt money

Downside of short selling
09/24/23 7:01 PM ESTMarkets
"Activist short-sellers who remain anonymous typically do so for fear of harassment of themselves and their families, from either their targeted companies or investors who lost money when the stocks of those companies declined in value. They also worry about fending off costly lawsuits."
More Markets: We'll have a good time then
Stock-bond correlation

We'll have a good time then
09/24/23 6:06 PM ESTMarkets
"The Fed needs to be very careful here. The working class and younger generations may discover who is responsible for their inability to own a home."
More Markets: Stock-bond correlation
Network effects unravel

What Works in Banking
09/24/23 5:32 PM ESTValue Investing
"A strategy that buys cheap, high-quality banks with conservatively managed loan and asset books can be expected to deliver excess returns in the majority of market environments."
More Value Investing: More bang for your buck
Seth Klarman on Security Analysis

Two per cent real yields
09/24/23 5:30 PM ESTBonds
"The good news for investors is that the highest yields in ~15 years, either real or nominal, can be locked in with a buy-and-hold strategy. No one knows if current rates are at or near a peak, but this much is clear: the case for a relatively higher allocation to Treasuries vs. recent history hasn.t looked this compelling since George W. Bush was walking the floor in the Oval Office."
More Bonds: The smart debt money
Mortgage rate update

Morgan Housel's portfolio
09/24/23 5:21 PM ESTIndexing
"Save your money and have a level of cash with which you can absorb and manage and survive all of the unpredictable nonsense in the economy, but invest your money like an optimist."
More Indexing: On second thought
Looking up and down

The Stingy News Weekly: September 17, 2023
09/17/23 6:29 PM ESTSNW
This week we have stocks, bonds, retirement, and more.
More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: September 10, 2023
The Stingy News Weekly: September 4, 2023

Household balance sheets
09/17/23 6:14 PM ESTEconomy
"The average debt-to-asset ratio historically has been around 13% (currently 12%), getting as high as 20% in 2009 at the depths of the financial crisis and as low as 6% in 1952 before consumer credit exploded higher in this country."
More Economy: The red superball
When will interest rates matter?

Stock-bond correlation
09/17/23 6:12 PM ESTMarkets
"Investors tend to think of stocks and bonds as negatively correlated, with stocks doing well in positive growth environments and bonds doing well when growth slows or declines. And that was largely true for the last quarter century. But earlier this year, the trailing three-year correlation between stocks and bonds turned positive for the first time since November of 2000"
More Markets: Network effects unravel
Hot stocks of the decade

The China model
09/16/23 10:44 PM ESTWorld
"The Peking University professor Zhang Dandan recently estimated that the unemployment rate among youth ages 16 to 24 could be close to 50 percent, more than twice the official figure."
More World: Japan in demand
The depopulation bomb

Network effects unravel
09/16/23 9:54 PM ESTMarkets
"For network effects to occur, the product or service has to be highly relevant to its users. When relevance fades, network effects quickly unravel."
More Markets: Hot stocks of the decade
Dissecting the investment factor

Getting ready
09/16/23 9:21 PM ESTRetirement
"I underestimated how much cash I should have on hand. I thought of myself as a 'rational person.' I could just sell investments when my cash cushion got close to zero, right? Wrong. It turns out I needed a larger cash buffer to sleep well at night. In my defense, it's hard to predict this number without living through a year or two of retirement spending, and watching your dollars dwindle. The lesson: Err on the conservative side."
More Retirement: What we lose
Less money than you think

The Stingy News Weekly: September 10, 2023
09/10/23 7:17 PM ESTSNW
This week we have big stocks, retirement, stories, and more.
More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: September 4, 2023
The Stingy News Weekly: August 27, 2023

Stories vs. intelligence
09/10/23 4:27 PM ESTBehaviour
"Stories are indispensable, nourishing and delightful. They are also attacks on the rational immune system."
More Behaviour: Be suspicious of stories
Respect and admiration

Be suspicious of stories
09/10/23 4:26 PM ESTBehaviour
"Tyler Cowen talks about stories" [video]
More Behaviour: Respect and admiration
How to decide

Hot stocks of the decade
09/10/23 3:58 PM ESTMarkets
"In each of the five full decades we studied, the weight of the top 100 stocks at the end of one decade was materially lower in the next. The decade following the dot-com craze of the 1990s (the 2000s) witnessed the lowest survival rate in our study with only 73% of stocks remaining a decade later"
More Markets: Dissecting the investment factor
Market returns with error

Respect and admiration
09/10/23 2:00 PM ESTBehaviour
"Virtually no one in this exercise would think about their obituary mentioning how much horsepower their car has, how many square feet their home is, or how much they spent on jewelry and clothes."
More Behaviour: How to decide
Big decisions

More bang for your buck
09/10/23 1:56 PM ESTValue Investing
"Europe offers higher profitability among firms trading at deep discounts."
More Value Investing: Seth Klarman on Security Analysis
The Albert Bridge factory

On second thought
09/10/23 1:11 PM ESTIndexing
"I'm no longer much interested in retirement, at least as traditionally defined. Instead, I see the overriding goal as financial freedom - meaning the freedom to spend my days as I wish without worrying about money. What's the key to not worrying? In large part, it's about feeling we have enough, which is less about a specific dollar amount and more about our willingness to be content with what we've accumulated."
More Indexing: Looking up and down
No right way

The Stingy News Weekly: September 4, 2023
09/04/23 4:50 PM ESTSNW
This week we have Buffett, cars, errors, and more.
More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: August 27, 2023
The Stingy News Weekly: August 20, 2023

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Stingy Stocks
+12.1%/yr (CAGR)

The Stingy Stocks beat the index by an average of 4.4 percentage points a year.

2023: New Picks (for subs)
2022: Down 13.8% (for subs)
2021: Up 47.8% (for subs)
2020: Down 32.3% (for subs)
2019: Up 0.0% (for subs)
2018: Up 19.6% (for subs)
2017: Up 58.3%
2016: Up 8.4%
2015: Down 1.4%
2014: Up 6.9%
2013: Up 37.8%
2012: Up 10.9%
2011: Down 16.1%
2010: Up 69.4%
2009: Up 64.5%
2008: Down 40.1%
2007: Down 5.5%
2006: Up 28.9%
2005: Up 29.2%
2004: Up 29.8%
2003: Up 33.8%
2002: Down 1.9%

Top 200
+9.5%/yr (CAGR)

The Top 200 beat the index by an average of 4.7 percentage points a year.

2023: New Picks (for subs)
2022: Down 3.8% (for subs)
2021: Up 18.7% (for subs)
2020: Down 15.4% (for subs)
2019: Up 5.9% (for subs)
2018: Down 14.5
2017: Up 13.5%
2016: Up 2.8%
2015: Up 2.1%
2014: Up 2.3%
2013: Up 55.0%
2012: Up 13.4%
2011: Down 4.2%
2010: Up 19.7%
2009: Up 41.0%
2008: Down 32.9%
2007: Up 16.2%
2006: Up 37.6%
2005: Up 57.6%

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When the TSX escapes the bear
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The Return Gap
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