Most Recent Stingy News
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| The Stingy News Weekly: June 18, 2017 |
| 06/18/17 8:40 PM EST | SNW |
| This week we have the Safer Dogs of the TSX, perfect foresight, poor timing and more. |
| More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: June 11, 2017 |
| The Stingy News Weekly: June 4, 2017 |
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| Institutional investors, just like us |
| 06/18/17 8:28 PM EST | Funds |
| "But what if you picked the top allocation per decade for the next decade, how would that do? ... It would reduce your return by 1.5% per year" |
| More Funds: Index fund contrarian |
| O'Shaughnessy and O'Shaughnessy |
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| Great returns, gut-wrenching drawdowns |
| 06/18/17 8:11 PM EST | Markets |
| "Our bottom line result is that perfect foresight has great returns, but gut-wrenching drawdowns. In other words, an active manager who was clairvoyant, and knew ahead of time exactly which stocks were going to be long-term winners and long-term losers, would likely get fired many times over if they were managing other people's money." |
| More Markets: Quant vs traditional investors |
| Still not crazy |
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| Whiplash: Value vs. Growth |
| 06/18/17 8:08 PM EST | Value Investing |
| "With mean reversion, investor behavior, and interest rates all lining up on the same side, things are indeed starting to look up for value." |
| More Value Investing: Graham and Doddsville Spring 2017 |
| Student stock-picking tips |
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| The Safer Dogs of the TSX |
| 06/18/17 8:02 PM EST | Stingy Investing |
| "The Safer Dogs now appear to be relatively cheap - provided they can grow their earnings over time. If a good part of those earnings can be turned into dividends or share buybacks then shareholders will likely be a happy bunch." |
| More Stingy Investing: A long-term return guess |
| Branching out in search of value |
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| Quant vs traditional investors |
| 06/18/17 8:00 PM EST | Markets |
| "Our conversation centers on the massive shift from what we call discretionary portfolio management - basically stock picking - to a landscape that is increasingly dominated by quantitative investors of various types. We talk about how any investor might hope to earn alpha, and how doing so is harder and harder." [audio] |
| More Markets: Still not crazy |
| Hannibal spirits |
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| Still not crazy |
| 06/18/17 7:58 PM EST | Markets |
| "Putting all of this together, it means that some of the FAANGs will be back in these stories (for positive or negative impact) soon enough over some ex post time period (3 months, 5 months, 1 year, we'll figure it out after it happens!). And it will likely be just as normal then as it is now and as it was after 2015 when Cliff first noted this." |
| More Markets: Hannibal spirits |
| Dave Chilton interview |
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| The Stingy News Weekly: June 11, 2017 |
| 06/11/17 7:24 PM EST | SNW |
| This week we have the dangerous retirement of morally bankrupt mattresses and more. |
| More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: June 4, 2017 |
| The Stingy News Weekly: May 28, 2017 |
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| Morally bankrupt |
| 06/11/17 7:01 PM EST | Management |
| "Most Americans have assumed their bank accounts are sacrosanct. But with the major scandal unfolding at Wells Fargo, angry former employees illuminate the alarming pressure that allegedly led local bankers to defraud perhaps more than a million customers." |
| More Management: Cheap Chick-fil-A franchise |
| The uselessness of job interviews |
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| Testing mattresses with Buffett |
| 06/11/17 5:18 PM EST | Buffett |
| "This year, Warren took me on a tour of Nebraska Furniture Mart, a super-successful megastore owned by Berkshire. We tried out some lounge chairs, played with remote-controlled mattresses, and somehow managed to get lost. Take a look..." [video] |
| More Buffett: The bet with Buffett |
| Berkshire Hathaway AGM |
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| The hardest problem in finance |
| 06/11/17 2:45 PM EST | Retirement |
| "Challenging as those may appear, none compare to what Nobel laureate William Sharpe, 82, calls 'decumulation,' or the use of savings in retirement. It is, he says, 'the nastiest, hardest problem in finance.'" |
| More Retirement: Safe vs. optimal |
| Retirement without trepidation |
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| Safe vs. optimal |
| 06/11/17 2:38 PM EST | Retirement |
| "In one case in the article we identify a 7 percent withdrawal rate as 'optimal.' That is not a 'safe' withdrawal rate. With the market assumptions in the article, the 7 percent withdrawal rate has a 57 percent chance of failure over a thirty-year retirement. Though it is not safe, it does maximize the overall expected lifetime satisfaction for a fairly flexible retired couple who has a secured income base of $20,000 from Social Security." |
| More Retirement: Retirement without trepidation |
| Hope triumphing over experience |
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| Hannibal spirits |
| 06/11/17 2:37 PM EST | Markets |
| "The Buffett Ratio is back near its record high of 1.81 during Q1-2000. It is simply the US equity market capitalization excluding foreign issues divided by nominal GDP. It rose to 1.69 during Q4-2016. It is highly correlated with the ratio of the S&P 500 market cap to the aggregate revenues of the composite. This alternative Buffett Ratio rose to 2.00 during Q1 of this year, matching the record high during Q4-1999. It is also highly correlated with the ratios of the S&P 500 to both forward revenues per share and forward earnings per share. All these valuation measures are flashing red." |
| More Markets: Dave Chilton interview |
| Revenue per employee |
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| Testing DALBAR's claims |
| 06/11/17 2:10 PM EST | Behaviour |
| "DALBAR suggests that equity mutual fund investors have underperformed the S&P 500 by over 600 basis points annually. In contrast, Russ Kinnel, my colleague at Morningstar Research Services, has noted a more muted impact in his annual Mind the Gap report, typically in the neighborhood of 100 basis points annually." |
| More Behaviour: You can change |
| The cost of bad behaviour |
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| The Stingy News Weekly: June 4, 2017 |
| 06/04/17 7:40 PM EST | SNW |
| This week we have guessing, bubbles, changing marshmallows, Chilton, and more. |
| More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: May 28, 2017 |
| The Stingy News Weekly: May 21, 2017 |
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| You can change |
| 06/04/17 7:30 PM EST | Behaviour |
| "The marshmallow test became the poster child for the idea that there are specific personality traits that are stable and consistent. And this drives Walter Mischel crazy. 'That iconic story is upside-down wrong,' Mischel says. 'That your future is in a marshmallow. Because it isn't.'" |
| More Behaviour: The cost of bad behaviour |
| Our world outsmarts us |
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| Dave Chilton interview |
| 06/04/17 7:13 PM EST | Markets |
| "We discuss business, investing, and writing." [audio] |
| More Markets: Revenue per employee |
| Michael Mauboussin interview |
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| High yield becomes low yield |
| 06/04/17 7:08 PM EST | Bonds |
| "Fast forward to today and we have reached the opposite extreme, with European junk bonds at an all-time low yield of 2.67%." |
| More Bonds: Be wary of junk bonds |
| What 2 years of negative rates tell us |
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| The new normal |
| 06/04/17 7:00 PM EST | Real Estate |
| "These days, the average home price is between seven and eight times income. To return to the ratio of the 1980s, the average household income has to jump to $160,000, or home prices have to fall back to $460,000." |
| More Real Estate: Too much housing |
| Fortress fails to silence critic |
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| Marc Andreessen interview |
| 06/04/17 6:59 PM EST | Economy |
| "The kicker to the whole thing, back to your question, is the sectors where prices are crashing by definition are shrinking as a percentage of the economy and the sectors where prices are rising are growing as a percentage of the economy, and so what's actually happening is the sectors where tech is not having a big impact are growing and will eventually be the entire economy. So TVs are going to cost $10 and healthcare is going to cost $1 million. This is where this is all headed. As a consequence, jobs, the answer is we are all going to employed in healthcare and education which is actually what's happening." |
| More Economy: Too much versus too little dynamism |
| Productivity slowdown |
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| A long-term return guess |
| 06/04/17 6:54 PM EST | Stingy Investing |
| "Afterwards I was asked what my expectations were for the market, and the couch potato portfolio, over the next 10 years, or so. It's an interesting question and one that investors would love to know the answer to - both in advance and with certainty. Alas, it is something that I'm less than certain about. But I can try to entertain you with a few wild - or at least somewhat educated - guesses." |
| More Stingy Investing: Branching out in search of value |
| Chasing dividend growth |
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