Stingy Investor Search - Contact - Subscribe - Login
  Home | Articles | Links | SNW
 
4 Graham Stocks for 2014

It is my pleasure to present you with the annual list of Graham stocks for 2014. These stocks pass my take on Benjamin Graham's test for defensive investors which focuses on relatively stable firms that trade at bargain prices.

I'm also pleased to say that the method has been highly profitable over the long term. However, it did trail the market, by a smidgeon, last year with a 19% return. You can see the full performance record in the accompanying table.

TABLE 1: Performance of Past Graham Stocks
YearGraham S&P500 +/-
2000 - 2001 20.4% -22.2% 42.6
2001 - 2002 28.2% -15.1% 43.3
2002 - 2003 56.8% 16.5% 40.3
2003 - 2004 32.2% 9.4% 22.8
2004 - 2005 46.6% 12.8% 33.8
2005 - 2006 -3.8% 10.7% -14.5
2006 - 2007 34.4% 16.1% 18.3
2007 - 2008 -6.5% -22.1% 15.6
2008 - 2009 2.2% -6.2% 8.4
2009 - 2010 2.3% 9.1% -6.8
2010 - 2011 4.1% 3.1% 1.0
2011 - 2012 26.6% 27.9% -1.3
2012 - 2013 19.0% 19.1% -0.1
Total Gain 830% 53%

If you had bought equal dollar amounts of the Graham stocks and replaced them with the new batch each year, you would have gained 830% (or 19% annualized) over the full period. On the other hand, index investors who bought and held the S&P500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) would be up only 53% (3% annualized) over the same period. Needless to say, the difference is considerable. (In both cases U.S. dollar returns are shown, which include dividends that are reinvested each year when the new stocks are selected.)

You can read all about Graham's original method for defensive investors in his book The Intelligent Investor. While he passed away in 1976, an updated edition of The Intelligent Investor (ISBN 0060555661), with modern commentary from veteran columnist Jason Zweig, was published in 2003. It's worth picking up. Serious Graham buffs should also invest in a copy of the sixth edition of Security Analysis (ISBN 0071592539), which includes additional commentary from some of today's most famous value investors. But, be warned, the second book can be a little daunting for new investors.

Graham's original rules for defensive investors were very strict. So strict that you wouldn't have found any North American stocks with them for much of the last decade. That's why my version employs a slightly more lenient approach. The important criteria I use are shown in the accompanying list, which reflects Graham's main requirements with a few modifications.

TABLE 2: Graham-inspired rules
1. P/E Ratio less than 15
2. P/Book Ratio less than 1.5
3. Positive Book Value
4. Current Ratio more than 2
5. Annual EPS Growth (5-Yr Avg) more than 3%
6. Positive 5 Year Dividend Growth
7. Positive Annual Earnings for 5 Years
8. 1-Year Revenue more than $400 Million

For instance, I differ when it comes to the dividend test. Graham demanded a twenty-year record of uninterrupted dividend payments whereas I require some dividend growth over the last five years. Problem is, there are very few firms that have good twenty-year dividend records.

Even with my slightly more lenient rules, very few U.S. stocks usually pass the test. At market lows, such as those seen in the spring of 2009, dozens might be available. More usually, less than 10 companies make the grade. This year only four made it. They are shown in the accompanying table.

However, a well-diversified portfolio should hold more than 10 stocks and in most cases many more. As a result, if you're keen on the defensive stocks then please use them to supplement a more diversified portfolio.

Before buying any stock, be sure to examine it in great detail. After all, the less tangible aspects of each company are worth considering. Also, keep an eye out for issues that might not be reflected in the company's latest numbers and get up to speed by reading news stories, press releases, and regulatory filings.

While my take on Graham's defensive method has avoided serious trouble so far, it can't be expected to outperform all of the time. Despite its resounding long-term track record, it trailed the market in four of the last thirteen years.

Be sure to take your time to get comfortable with the method, and value investing more generally, before diving in. It might look easy, but it can be hard to stick with value stocks as they go through their ups and downs.

TABLE 3: U.S. stocks that pass my Graham-inspired rules
Name Price P/E P/B Yield
American Financial (AFG) $54.67 10.0 1.1 1.61%
HollyFrontier (HFC) $41.83 5.4 1.3 2.87%
Universal (UVV) $51.16 8.7 1.1 3.91%
Unum (UNM) $30.83 9.4 1.0 1.88%
Sources: msn.com, yahoo.com, morningstar.ca, October 1, 2013


Additional Resources:


First published in the January 2014 edition of the Canadian MoneySaver magazine. Performance numbers are based on the dates in the data table and do not represent calendar year figures.

 
Globe & Mail Articles
 Portfolios

 Dividend All-Stars for 2024
 250 Megastars for 2024
 Extreme yields
 The easy way
 Smaller stable dividend
 250 Megastars for 2023
 Champagne portfolio
 Screaming Value
 Blended momentum
 Dividend monster
 Frugal dividend
 Stable dividend
 Speads and recessions
 TSX 60 for value investors
 Looking at 10-year returns
 Watching for a bottom
 Oh, bother!
 Low P/E DJIA
 Indexing advice
 Media-shy stocks
 Curse of size
 Market uncertainty
 Be even lazier
 Scary beats safe
 Small, illiquid, value
 Use the numbers
 What value is good value?
 Sculpt for value
 Value vs CAPE
 Graham Rules
 CAPE vs PeakE
 Top value ratio
 Low Beta
 Value and dividends
 Walter Schloss
 Try unloved AIG
 Why I'm a value investor
 New world of ETFs
 Low P/Es possible
 10 yielders
 Be happier
 Long-Short
 Dividend Downside
 Shiller's P/E
 Copycat investing
 Cashing in on class
 Index roulette
 Theory collides
 Diving too deep
 3 retirement villains
 Scourge of inflation
 Economic omens
 Analyst Expectations
 Value stock scarcity
 It's all in the index
 How to pick good funds
 Low Beta Wins
 Hunt for dividend stocks
 Think garage sale

MoneySaver Articles
 2 Graham Stocks for 2018
 2 Stingy Stocks for 2017
 2 Graham Stocks for 2017
 3 Stingy Stocks for 2016
 5 Graham Stocks for 2016
 3 Stingy Stocks for 2015
 3 Graham Stocks for 2015
 3 Stingy Stocks for 2014
 4 Graham Stocks for 2014
 8 Stingy Stocks for 2013
 6 Graham Stocks for 2013
 9 Stingy Stocks for 2012
 8 Graham Stocks for 2012
 Simple Way 2011
 5 Stingy Stocks for 2011
 7 Graham Stocks for 2011
 Simple Way 2010
 5 Stingy Stocks for 2010
 8 Graham Stocks for 2010
 Simple Way 2009
 Timing Temptation
 19 Stingy Stocks for 2009
 4 Graham Stocks for 2009
 Simple Way 2008
 Active at Passive Prices
 Unbundling ETFs 2008
 5 Stingy Stocks for 2008
 5 Graham Stocks for 2008
 Is your index too active?
 Graham's Simple Way
 Canadian Graham Stocks
 5 Stingy Stocks for 2007
 8 Graham Stocks for 2007
 Top SPPs
 The Simple Way
 A hole in your IPO?
 Monkey Business
 8 Stingy Stocks for 2006
 Graham Stock Gainers
 Blue-Chip Blues
 Are Dividends Safe?
 SPPs for 2005
 Graham's Simplest Way
 Selling Graham Stocks
 RRSP Money Market Funds
 Stingy Stocks for 2005
 High Performance Graham
 Intelligent Indexing
 Unbundling Canadian ETFs
 A history of yield
 A Dynamic Duo
 Canadian Graham Stock
 Dividends at Risk
 Thrifty Value Stocks
 Stocks in Short Supply
 The New Dividend
 Hunting Goodwill
 SPPs for 2003
 RRSP: don't panic
 Desirable Dividends
 Stingy Selections 2003
 10 Graham Picks
 Growth Eh?
 Timing Disaster
 Dangerous Diversification
 The Coffee Can Portfolio
 Down with the dogs
 Stingy Selections
 Frugal Funds
 Graham Revisited
 Just Spend It
 Ticker Temptation
 Stock Mortality
 Focus on Fees
 SPPs for the Long Term
 Seeking Solid Stocks
 Relative Strength
 The VR Approach
 The Irrational Investor
 Value Investing

Old MS Articles
 Cdn Top 200 2018
 Cdn Top 200 2017
 Cdn Top 200 2016
 Cdn Top 200 2015
 Cdn Top 200 2014
 Cdn Top 200 2013
 Cdn Top 200 2012
 Cdn Top 200 2011
 Cdn Top 200 2010
 Cdn Top 200 2009
 Cdn Top 200 2008
 Cdn Top 200 2007
 Cdn Top 200 2006
 Cdn Top 200 2005
 US Top 500 2018
 US Top 500 2017
 US Top 500 2016
 US Top 500 2015
 US Top 500 2014
 US Top 500 2013
 US Top 500 2012
 US Top 500 2011
 US Top 500 2010
 US Top 500 2009
 US Top 500 2008
 US Top 500 2007
 US Top 1000 2006
 Dividends 100 2017
 Dividends 100 2016
 Retirement 100 2015
 Retirement 100 2014
 Retirement 100 2013
 Retirement 100 2012
 Retirement 100 2011
 Retirement 100 2010
 Income 100 2009
 Income 100 2008
 Income 100 2007
 Top Trusts 2006
 Top Trusts 2005
 Hot Potato
 Buffett Buys
 FB IPO
 Stocks that pay
 Value in the S&P500
 Where to invest $100k
 Where to invest $10k
 Summer Simple Way
 A crystal ball for stocks?
 Cheap & safe
 Risky business
 Dividend investing
 Value investing
 Momentum investing
 Low P/E P/B
 Dividends
 Dividend growers
 Graham's prescription
 The case for optimism
 Wicked investments
 Simply spectacular
 Small stocks, big profits
 Value that sizzles
 So simple it works
 No assembly required
 Investing by the book
 Invest like the masters
 A simple way to get rich
 Stocks for cannibals
 Car bites dogs
 So easy, so profitable
 Dogs of the Dow
 Money for nothing
 Yield of dreams
 Return of the master

Advisor's Edge Articles
 Passive Rebundling
 Doing the math

Flip Books



 
About Us | Legal | Contact Us
Disclaimers: Consult with a qualified investment adviser before trading. Past performance is a poor indicator of future performance. The information on this site, and in its related newsletters, is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, financial advice or recommendations. The information on this site is in no way guaranteed for completeness, accuracy or in any other way. More...